“He will never amount to anything,” ran the report card.
One theory of relativity and a Nobel prize in physics later, it is safe to say Albert Einstein managed to confound the expectations of an ex-schoolmaster, who might have been left with cause to reflect on the perils of trying to see into the future. Still, no-one said such a practise was easy.
That’s especially the case when it comes to the Six Nations, that most unpredictable of sporting tournaments.
Wales to be contesting a wooden spoon in 2021? Er, not quite, with Wayne Pivac’s team actually winning the title. England to skate to a Grand Slam in 2019? Again, it didn’t happen, with Wales beating everyone.
So what’s it to be this time? Here’s our best guess at how the coming Guinness Six Nations will pan out:
ROUND ONE, February 4/5
Wales v Ireland
England v Scotland
Italy v France
Predictions: Ireland by four, England by seven, France by 15.
It’s a monumental game to start, with both Wales and Ireland looking for the win that could shape their campaigns, momentum being hugely important in the Six Nations.
Ireland destroyed Wales last term but they are without their scrummaging kingpin Tadhg Furlong in Cardiff. Wales are minus Will Rowlands and could well have missed a beat by not including Nicky Smith in their squad, with the Osprey in destructive scrummaging form and useful around the field as well.
It could be tighter than a lot expect, and a shock isn’t out of the question. But maybe Ireland will just have enough to prevail, with their talisman Johnny Sexton pointing the way (you can read here what happened after Sexton tore into a Wales star while on duty with the Lions).
England have won just one of their last five meetings with Scotland but it’s the start of a new era under Steve Borthwick and they’ll be determined to mark the occasion with a win. Tom Curry’s absence through injury isn’t great news, but Borthwick has drafted in Tom’s brother Ben. Their bench looks strong as well, with Anthony Watson, Ollie Lawrence, Mako Vunipola and Ben Earl featuring. It may all prove a bit much for the Scots, notwithstanding that they field a powerful 23.
Italy’s last Six Nations outing saw them beat Wales but they’ll do well to see off France.
Win a Wales rugby shirt for the Six Nations below. You can also access it here.
ROUND TWO, February 11/12
Ireland v France
Scotland v Wales
England v Italy
Predictions: Ireland by two, Wales by three, England by 17.
The fixtures have matched Ireland with England in the final game of this year’s championship, with the organisers and TV people doubtless hoping for much last-day tension and drama, but from here it looks as if the key encounter of the tournament will be the date between the Irish and the French in round two.
If France win it would be a true statement of intent, an indicator that they will be very much the team to beat at the global tournament they host in the autumn.
But there was little between the Irish and Les Bleus last term; maybe home advantage will prove decisive again.
Wales didn’t lose a match that Gatland oversaw against Scotland during the New Zealander’s first stint as Welsh coach, but the Scots are developing depth and quality in World Cup year. How Wales perform against Ireland will be important here. A strong performance in round one would give them belief. Just maybe, they’ll maintain their coach's proud record in this fixture.
England haven’t lost in 29 meetings against Italy. Don’t expect that sequence to change here.
ROUND THREE, February 25/26
Italy v Ireland
Wales v England
France v Scotland
Predictions: Ireland by 16, Wales by three, France by nine.
The pick of the games here looks to be Wales v England. Again, so much will depend on which players are still standing by this point and who's picking up speed and who's starting to flag. But it’s in Cardiff and Wales can usually be relied upon to whip up a storm at home against the old enemy.
It’s far from inconceivable that the men in red could topple their counterparts in white and take the spoils against their mates from across the River Severn, as they have done in the last three meetings between the sides at the Principality Stadium.
Ireland should sweep aside Italy, with France having too much for Scotland.
ROUND FOUR, March 11/12
Italy v Wales
England v France
Scotland v Ireland
Predictions: Wales by nine, France by six, Ireland by nine.
Revenge is a dish best served cold, according to the old adage. And Wales will have had almost a full year to mull over the woeful home loss to Italy which likely contributed to Wayne Pivac losing his job when the WRU went into full reflective mode last autumn.
You wouldn’t expect them to come a cropper again, but never say never. By round four, Gatland would have had time to put his stamp on the squad and the assumption is Wales will prove too strong.
England may quietly fancy their chances at home against France but Les Bleus have match-winners and game-changers all over the place with the Lionel Messi-esque Antoine Dupont leading the way.
Scotland gave Ireland a hurry-up in Edinburgh two years ago, but, ultimately, the men in green took the spoils, the way it’s gone in 11 of the last 12 fixtures between the countries. It would be a minor surprise if the Scots were able to upset their Celtic cousins this time.
ROUND FIVE, March 18
Scotland v Italy
France v Wales
Ireland v England
Predictions: Scotland by 12, France by 10, Ireland by nine.
And so to Super Saturday, with Wales facing a tough one to finish, against France in Paris. Les Bleus will want to end the campaign on a high note in front of their own supporters.
Two years ago, chasing a Grand Slam, Wales produced arguably their best performance of Wayne Pivac’s reign. But for an implosion in the final minutes, they could easily have completed a clean sweep.
The teams have been on different roads since. France are fancied to finish with a flourish.
Scotland should see off Italy, with Ireland proving too strong for England in Dublin. An emerald Slam it's to be, then.
Let's see if Wales can destroy that prediction on the first weekend.
Projected final standings: 1) Ireland, 2) France, 3) Wales, 4) England, 5) Scotland, 6) Italy.
Read next:
