If there’s one thing we know about the 2023 Dallas Cowboys, it’s that they love to play man coverage. This season, Dan Quinn’s defense has lined up in man on 40.3% of their defensive snaps, most in the NFL. And if you take away their loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 16, when they played much more zone against Mike McDaniel’s turbo-charged offense, that rate jumps to 41.0%. Ostensibly, that’s extremely good news for Jared Goff, whose Detroit Lions face those Cowboys on Saturday night.
Against man coverage this season, Goff has completed 71 of 124 passes for 837 yards, 547 air yards, eight touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 99.4. Against zone coverage, Goff has completed 233 of 325 passes for 2,775 yards, 1,701 air yards, 13 touchdowns, all 10 of his interceptions, and a passer rating of 97.9. So, more explosive plays against zone, but also all of Goff’s interceptions, and there are some common threads here.
In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into why Goff’s attributes as a timing and anticipation thrower of the football can also get in his way against certain coverages. Also, how the Cowboys can take advantage… if they want to flip the script a little bit.
You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” featuring tape and advanced metric analysis of all Week 17’s biggest NFL matchups (including Lions-Cowboys, of course), right here:
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Now, let’s get deeper into this Jared Goff-Dan Quinn matchup.
Zone coverage can make Goff a bit late to the party.
Five of those 10 interceptions this season came against the Chicago Bears over two games, and while a couple of those picks were unusual — the Bears playing Hail Mary defense on one, and tight end Sam LaPorta bumping into safety Jaquan Brisker on another — this interception by Jaylon Johnson with 14:12 left in the first half in Week 14 — was emblematic of Goff’s issues.
The Bears were in Cover-3, and the Lions responded with a flood concept out of bunch right. Goff had receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown open on his intermediate out-breaking route, but he waited too long in a clean pocket, and Johnson was right there to jump the route.
And when you’re late against Joe Barry’s Green Bay Packers defense… well, that’s not ideal. With 13:44 left in the first quarter in Week 4 against Barry’s Cover-3, Goff had a well-designed vert/crosser front-side combo with Kalif Raymond and Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown was open underneath as safety Darnell Savage worked Raymond upfield, but once again, Goff was late with the throw, and slot defender Rudy Ford came across to take advantage.
Of course Goff has made great throws against zone coverage — he’s particularly dominant when throwing intermediate in-breakers — but this is an issue to monitor as the Lions face better teams in the playoffs.
The Cowboys aren't limited to excellence in man coverage.
Dallas has an especially heavy Cover-1 defense (a league-high 35.2% of their snaps), and when in Cover-1, that defense has allowed 78 completions in 145 attempts for 1,070 yards, six touchdowns, six interceptions, four dropped interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 74.2. In man overall, the Cowboys have allowed seven touchdowns, six interceptions, and five dropped interceptions.
Now in zone coverage, the Cowboys have allowed 120 completions on 201 attempts for 1,396 yards, three touchdowns, seven interceptions, two dropped interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 71.2. Only the Baltimore Ravens (68.2) have a lower opponent passer rating when playing zone coverage. Quinn likes to lead with Cover-3 in those instances, with Cover-2 and Cover-4 a distant second and third. This season, Goff has a league-high 10 touchdowns against Cover-3, but his six interceptions against Cover-3 is tied with Josh Allen for the league lead, as well.
Throwing these two things together makes me think that this could be a big DaRon Bland game. The second-year man from Sacramento State and Fresno State leads the league with eight interceptions, and he’s set pro football’s single-season record with five pick-sixes. Bland isn’t a perfect cornerback per se, but one thing he does exceedingly well is to bait, wait, and jump routes for interceptions.
This has been true in man and zone coverage. This pick-six against the Washington Commanders in Week 12 saw Sam Howell getting a bit loose against Dallas’ Cover-3, and Bland was all over the boundary throw to Jahan Dotson.
The week before, Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers found Bland to be an equally unpleasant matchup on this crosser to receiver Jonathan Mingo. Bland matched across and got in front of Young’s target at the perfect time. Another pick-six in the books.
Remember that thing about Goff being late at times against zone coverage, making him vulnerable to defenders jumping stuff? Well, here’s a guy who’s been doing that all season long.
Goff's best bet to counter this is his ultimate attribute.
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is great at scheming openings on in-breaking routes, and Goff is great at throwing them for the most part, because he has receivers who know how to get open and make the most of yards after catch opportunities. This 15-yard touchdown pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown against the Denver Broncos in Week 15 is a great example. St. Brown ran an exact angle route, caught the ball eight yards upfield, and the rest (including a flip at the goal line) was up to him. Notice how tight end Sam LaPorta’s vertical route took safety Justin Simmons out of the picture, especially when LaPorta pressed his route right in Simmons’ direction.
The Cowboys have been vulnerable to these concepts at times, as was the case on this 20-yard pass from Matthew Stafford to Tutu Atwell in Week 8. Atwell ran a dig route as part of the Los Angeles Rams’ Dagger concept, with Cooper Kupp taking the vertical route. Kupp took safety Malik Hooker upfield, and Atwell found an easy opening cutting inside against Mr. Bland.
As much as possible, the Lions should dial up those kinds of in-breakers, especially in conjunction with vertical routes, to disrupt deep coverage and to create openings at the intermediate level. That’s where the big plays — the game-winning plays, in fact — might come regardless of the Cowboys’ coverage concepts.
Anything to keep Goff away from his own fatal flaw.
