The Kansas City Chiefs are staying on the road in Week 13, traveling to Green Bay to take on the Packers on Sunday Night Football.
The Chiefs got back on the winning track last week against with a 31-17 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. The offense showed improvement, scoring over 30 points for the third time this season. With a win over the Packers Kansas City will take back the No. 1 seed in the AFC and control its own destiny moving forward.
Winners of three of their last four, the Packers have some momentum coming into this game and are aiming to get back to .500 with a win. They are coming off a big road victory over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day. If it can pull the upset over the Chiefs, Green Bay could make a run at the postseason as the rest of its schedule currently features no teams with winning records.
Check out our offseason report on the Packers, where you’ll find information about their offseason moves and key players. Now, let’s see what it will take for the Chiefs to get a road win at Lambeau Field.
Chiefs' defense vs. Packers' offense
Matt LaFleur is in his fifth season as the Packers’ head coach. He has been the offensive playcaller during his entire tenure in Green Bay. LaFleur’s system is West Coast-oriented, but he uses 21 personnel as his base offense. This forces defenses to stay in their base formations more often.
LaFleur uses a lot of pre-snap motion, which is effective because any skill position can start anywhere and move anywhere else. His running game features a lot of inside and outside zone running behind the fullback.
The Packers have had a lackluster rushing attack this season, ranking 21st in the NFL. To make matters worse, they will be without running back Aaron Jones for this game, leaving AJ Dillon as the workhorse back. Dillon is averaging a less-than-desirable 3.4 yards per carry.
Off of the running game comes a lot of different play-action concepts, including the bootleg. The short passing game shows LaFleur’s West Coast roots, with quarterback Jordan Love getting the ball out of his hands quickly on horizontal passes such as slants and crossing routes.
Love is improving each week, with a 7-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over his last three games and an average of 293 passing yards per game. Love has all the physical and natural tools you want in a quarterback. His strong arm gives him the ability to make tight window throws and his six-foot-four athletic frame allows him to run the ball effectively and absorb hits.
The Chiefs’ defense will have to be leery of Love stretching the field with wide receiver Christian Watson, who has blazing 4.3 speed and is averaging 16.7 yards per catch.
Love also does a nice job of spreading the ball around between receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, as well as tight end Luke Musgrave. Forcing Love to dump the ball off short and timely blitzes should be a recipe for success for Kansas City’s defense.
Chiefs' offense vs. Packers' defense
Joe Barry is in his third year as the Packers’ defense coordinator. He runs a 3-4 base in the front seven of his defense, which features two very good outside linebackers in Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. Gary and Smith have combined for 13.5 sacks this season.
Outside of that impressive duo, however, Green Bay hasn’t had much juice up front this year. The Packers are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game and the seventh-most yards per carry. The Chiefs are a middle-of-the-pack rushing offense, but if they can get Isiah Pacheco going early, he could wear down the struggling Green Bay run defense.
Back in the secondary, Barry frequently plays two high safeties to help prevent big plays and allow underneath defenders to play more aggressively. The Packers rank in the top 10 in passing yards allowed per game and in yards per completion at 6.8. They have struggled to force turnovers, however, with the second least (five) in the league.
The last time Barry and the Packers’ defense played the Chiefs, they held K.C. to 13 points and just 3.8 yards per play. The Chiefs were much more dependent on big plays then and have since adapted the approach of taking what the defense gives them and spreading the ball around.
Getting the ball to playmakers such as Rashee Rice and Kadarius Tony in space on short to intermediate routes and letting them create yards after the catch is how the K.C. offense can rack up big plays. The Packers are a heavy blitzing defense (seventh highest blitzing percentage in the NFL), so the Chiefs’ pass catchers should have a numbers advantage in the open field.
