The Kansas City Chiefs wrap up their three-game road stretch in Houston when they take on the Texans.
The Chiefs got back on the winning track last week with a win over the Denver Broncos, improving to 10-3 on the season. To secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC Kansas City will need to keep pace with the 10-3 Buffalo Bills, who have the tiebreaker over the Chiefs, and hope the Bills stumble.
The Texans didn’t have super high expectations coming into this season, but certainly expected to be better than 1-10-1 at this point. Last week they put up a fight against a good Dallas Cowboys team but squandered it in the final minute. Houston will look to finish 2022 strong as its players and coaches could be fighting for their jobs.
Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and see what it will take for a Chiefs victory.
Chiefs' defense vs. Texans' offense
Head coach Lovie Smith appointed Pep Hamilton as his offensive coordinator this past offseason. Hamilton is an experienced coach with track records in the NFL, college and even the XFL. His offensive system is very multiple, with elements of the West Coast, Air Coryell and heavy sets with multiple tight ends.
Hamilton’s rushing attack is geared toward power gap runs. Rookie running back Dameon Pierce fits that scheme well with his power running style. Like a typical rookie, he has flashed high-end ability, but he also has had some inconsistencies. Unfortunately for Pierce, he’s expected to miss this game with an ankle injury.
The depth behind Pierce is pretty weak as backups Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale have combined for just 107 yards rushing on the season. The Texans as a whole rank 28th in the NFL in rushing offense and have the second-least number of rushing touchdowns with six.
Hamilton has been a quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator multiple times throughout his coaching career, making the passing game his specialty. He is a master at tying play-action with his running game, though that may be challenging this week without Pierce.
Houston has given Davis Mills every chance to prove he could be the quarterback of the future, but he hasn’t been able to carry over the momentum he had from a solid rookie season in 2021. He’s averaging just 6.6 yards per completion and throwing more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (11), the Texans turned to Kyle Allen.
Allen didn’t fare any better, throwing four interceptions in two starts. Now, the Texans could be turning to the unconventional two-quarterback system with Mills and Jeff Driskel. Mills and Driskel rotated in and out throughout the game against the Cowboys last week, with Driskel providing a threat with both his arm and legs as he threw six passes and ran the ball seven times.
Regardless of how the quarterbacks are used, neither one may have much to work with. Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, Houston’s two top receivers, missed last week’s game and are in danger of missing this game as well. That would make its top two options Chris Moore, who has 37 receptions on the season, and Philip Dorsett who is a speedy deep threat.
Chiefs' offense vs. Texans' defense
When Lovie Smith was promoted to head coach this past offseason, he kept his role of defensive coordinator from 2021 as well. Smith comes from the old-school Tampa 2 defense, which in its basic form is a 4-3 base with heavy zone coverages in the secondary and the safeties playing two-high. His schemes have evolved but still use a lot of the same principles.
The bright spot of Smith’s defense this season has been the secondary. It has allowed the least number of touchdown passes in the entire league with just 11. It is also allowing the fifth-lowest completion percentage to quarterbacks at 61.2 percent.
The Texans have a nice trio of cornerbacks in Desmond King, Derek Stingley and former Chiefs CB Steven Nelson, but Stingley and Nelson are in jeopardy of missing this game. Even if they play, one reason the Houston secondary hasn’t allowed a ton of yards could be that teams are running on them so much.
The Texans’ front seven leaves a lot to be desired. It ranks dead last in the NFL in run defense, surrendering 165.8 yards per game. It also struggles to generate a pass rush outside of defensive end Jerry Hughes who leads the team in sacks with eight.
Chiefs’ running back Isiah Pacheco is averaging 4.9 yards per carry in his last five games and now gets to face the worst run defense in the league. Feeding him the ball while also sprinkling in some Jerick McKinnon makes too much sense, especially if the Chiefs can jump out to an early lead.
Of course, the Chiefs like to get their offense jumpstarted with the passing game. They can exploit Texans’ linebackers Christian Kirksey and Christian Harris, who rank in the bottom third of Pro Football Focus’ linebacker grades. Houston’s scheme is already vulnerable in the middle of the field, so the K.C. could really feast there on Sunday.
