In one of the biggest games of Week 13, the Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals.
The Chiefs are fresh off a home victory over the Los Angeles Rams, their fifth win in a row. Revenge will be on their mind after losing to the Bengals twice last year, blowing double-digit second-half leads in each game. Kansas City has a very favorable remaining schedule after this game and could have a real shot at running the table if it can get by Cincinnati.
Like last season, the Bengals are heating up at the right time. They have won five of their last six games and are coming off back-to-back road victories over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans. The Bengals are tied for the AFC North lead with the Baltimore Ravens at 7-4.
Let’s dive into this matchup and see what it will take for the Chiefs to finally get to the Bengals.
Chiefs' defense vs. Bengals' offense
Zac Taylor is in his fourth season as the Bengals’ head coach. He coached under Rams’ head coach Sean McVay from 2017-2018, whom the Chiefs faced last week. Taylor’s offensive scheme is naturally very similar to McVay’s, operating primarily out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers).
One way in which Taylor differs from McVay is how much he spreads out his offensive formations.
No offense utilized empty formations or 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) more often than the Rams or Bengals this season.
Zac Taylor has diverged from Sean McVay's coaching tree in other offensive tendencies, such as utilizing more spread formations.#RamsHouse | #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/xBUf2sXSI6
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 8, 2022
With three incredibly talented receivers in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, Taylor uses the width of the field to his advantage and forces defensive backs to cover every inch of it. This also makes it easier for quarterback Joe Burrow to identify matchups and potential blitzers.
Burrow is having another excellent season, ranking third in the NFL in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns. Like last year he is having success despite poor offensive line play. In 2021 Burrow was sacked a league-high 70 times, and now in 2022, he is the third-most sacked QB at 33 times.
Given Cincinnati’s offensive line struggles and how talented its receivers are, the Chiefs may not blitz as often as usual.
In the 1st KC-CIN matchup last yr, many of the game's biggest plays were simply Joe Burrow triggering deep and to the sideline when he saw a Cover 1 or Cover 0 look
He completed 4/6 passes 20+ air yards & outside the numbers to Chase/Higgins in 1v1 coverage w/ a KC CB pic.twitter.com/EuMlZI1IX9
— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) November 30, 2022
They could bank on getting consistent pressure rushing just four or five defenders so they can drop six or seven defenders to cover the lethal Bengals’ pass catchers. The K.C. defense ranks fifth in the league in sacks with 35.
The Bengals’ top three receivers- Chase, Higgins and Boyd, all rank in the top 30 among all WRs in receiving yards. That is particularly impressive for Chase, who has missed the last four games due to a hip injury. He is expected to return for this game. The Chiefs’ passing defense has improved in recent weeks, but they still rank in the bottom half of the league in most categories.
Circling back to the Bengals’ offensive line struggles, it has also had a negative effect on the rushing attack. Cincinnati ranks 27th in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging just 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.
After being the third leading rusher in 2021, Joe Mixon is currently 18th in rushing yards, having eclipsed 100 yards in just one game this season. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-least number of rushing yards and the third-least number of rushing touchdowns this season.
Chiefs' offense vs. Bengals' defense
When Taylor became Cincinnati’s head man in 2019, he hired Lou Anarumo to be his defensive coordinator. Anarumo’s base defense is 4-3, but he mostly runs a 4-2-5 nickel (four defensive linemen, two linebackers and five defensive backs). Often times three out of the five DBs are safeties.
The Bengals have a deep and talented safety group in Jessie Bates III, Vonn Bell, Michael Thomas and Dax Hill. They are working extra hard to fill the void of starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Cincinnati secondary is allowing the second-lowest completion percentage and the third-least touchdown passes to QBs.
The Bengals’ front seven has been slightly above average against the run, ranking 11th in the league. It has struggled to apply pressure on the QB as the Bengals have the second-fewest sacks in the NFL with just 17. What pressure they do apply usually comes from the edge with defensive ends Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard combining for 10.5 sacks.
In last year’s AFC Championship game, the Anarumo adjusted his approach in the second half and consistently dropped eight defenders in coverage.
The #Bengals dropped 8+ defenders in coverage on a season-high 35% of pass plays.
Patrick Mahomes struggled against 8+ defenders in coverage, completing just 7 of 13 passes for 59 yards & an INT with 2 sacks (-14.4 pass EPA, career-low).#CINvsKC | #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/oGWhaVWx6z
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 30, 2022
He was willing to let the Chiefs run the ball, which they were doing successfully at 5.8 yards per carry. Chiefs’ running backs only carried the ball 18 times, however, despite the struggles quarterback Patrick Mahomes was having.
This time around the Chiefs may be willing to run the ball more. Isiah Pacheco has run the ball well and often over the past few weeks with his confidence and momentum trending upwards.
Even with Mahomes having an MVP-caliber season, it would be best not to test a Bengals’ secondary that is playing at a high level. The Chiefs’ passing game has executed well underneath, not having to constantly stretch the field. A patient, ball-control offense may be the best strategy against this iteration of the Cincinnati defense.
