The Buffalo Bills were already coming into their game-of-the-week matchup against the Miami Dolphins and their explosive passing game lighter than they’d like on defense. Cornerbacks Tre’Davious White (ACL) and Dane Jackson (neck) are out, as is defensive tackle Jordan Phillips (hamstring) and safety Micah Hyde (neck).
On Saturday morning, the news went from bad to worse when Jack Bechta, Hyde’s agent, revealed that Hyde’s neck injury, which he suffered in Week 2 against the Tennessee Titans, will cause him to miss the rest of the 2022 season.
This is obviously a major blow to Buffalo’s league-best defense, as Hyde and Jordan Poyer have comprised the NFL’s best safety duo for a few years now. By the way, Poyer will probably be a game-time decision with a foot injury. So, ouch.
Beyond whatever happens against the Dolphins, how do the Bills get past this? They are viewed as the prohibitive Super Bowl favorites in the AFC, and for good reason, but as much as they’ll miss Hyde, head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier must adopt the “Next Man Up” philosophy as they go.
“I know we have a number of injuries here, but I remain very confident in our football team, and very confident in the back end,” McDermott said this week.
That was more about rookie cornerbacks Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford, who will be on the field in place of White and Jackson, but it now must apply to Hyde’s position.
Jordan Poyer is still the NFL's best deep safety.
As much as the Bills’ offense forces their opponents into catch-up situations, it doesn’t go well for those opponents. This season, per Sports Info Solutions, the Bills have allowed two completions of 20 or more air yards on six attempts for 46 yards and no touchdowns. Last season, Buffalo allowed nine deep completions on 39 deep attempts for 288 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 25.8. To put that into perspective, the Falcons ranked second with an opponent passer rating on deep passes of 55.7.
As great as Hyde is, the most prominent reason teams don’t want to go deep on the Bills is Poyer. Overall last season, Poyer allowed 13 catches on 28 targets for 61 yards, 40 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, five interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 13.7, which is just utterly ridiculous. As long as Poyer is on the field, everything else should hold together pretty well.
Poyer already has two right place/right time interceptions this season; both were in the deep third of the field. There was this pick against the Rams in Week 1, when he was on the spot for Matthew Stafford’s errant no-look throw to Cooper Kupp…
…and this pick against the Titans last Sunday, when Poyer was the third Bills player to touch Ryan Tannehill’s attempted crosser to Robert Woods.
Trust the young replacements.
Jaquan Johnson, selected in the sixth round of the 2019 draft out of Miami, hasn’t seen a lot of regular-season reps at safety for obvious reasons. But he did have a decent preseason, especially in the preseason opener against the Colts. Johnson isn’t on Hyde’s or Poyer’s level, but he’s already shown that he can roll in a defense that requires all kinds of discipline and communication.
Interesting to see what the Bills' safety situation looks like with Micah Hyde out. Jaquan Johnson (No. 4) has experience in Buffalo's spun coverages, and the communication seems to be there.
Jordan Poyer is the guy they can't stop Miami's passing game without. pic.twitter.com/l3aghDNjyF
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 23, 2022
Johnson (No 4) got a bit lost in the deep third on Baker Mayfield’s 19-yard touchdown pass to Shi Smith. So maybe you don’t want him at free safety a lot of the time.
But I liked this rep in that same preseason finale. Johnson showed a blitz look pre-snap, and then followed tight end Tommy Tremble all the way to the boundary to prevent a possible touchdown.
Johnson isn’t Hyde, but as long as he’s working with Poyer, there shouldn’t be too many communication breakdowns.
Everyone else is still on point.
Fortunately for the Bills, the rest of their defense is still outstanding as long as there are no other long-term injuries. When they get White back on the field, that’s a top-five cornerback. Linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds allow the Bills to play as much nickel as any defense in the league with their outstanding combination of coverage and run-stopping ability. And with the addition of Von Miller, as well as the obvious development of young edge-rushers Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham, and A.J. Epenesa, McDermott and Frazier are in the highly enviable position of being able to bring consistent pressure without committing extra defenders to the rush.
The Bills have a zone-heavy defense that doesn’t blow you away with schematic wrinkles. All they do is what needs to be done — play after play, game after game. That’s likely why, as much as losing Hyde for the season is obviously less than ideal, the Bills will be able to keep that defense above the pack.
And while Buffalo may want to run more single-high looks without Hyde, they’re perfectly capable of doing so — especially with all their spun coverages. This season, when playing Cover-1 and Cover-3, the Bills have allowed nine completions on 17 attempts for 108 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 33.1 — again, the NFL’s lowest.
The first test, against the Dolphins on Sunday, could be the deepest.
