After a year of many ups and downs, the 2024 DTM season is set for an epic climax at Hockenheim this weekend. Three drivers, representing as many teams and manufacturers, are in pursuit of their maiden title in the prestigious German series.
Leading the standings is factory Lamborghini man Mirko Bortolotti, who is keen to avenge his narrow loss to Porsche’s Thomas Preining in 2023. The Italian sits 15 points clear of Abt Audi driver Kelvin van der Linde, while Mercedes’ Maro Engel is another five points adrift in third for Winward Racing.
Both Bortolotti and van der Linde have scored at least one win so far, while Engel’s title charge has been built on consistency, having finished on the podium in seven of the 16 races so far in 2024.
A total of 56 points are on offer at the Hockenheimring double header, with 25 going to the winner of each race and three additional points granted for pole position in both qualifying sessions.
How Mirko Bortolotti can win the 2024 DTM title
Bortolotti is the only driver who can secure the title on Saturday. To do so, he would have to score at least 14 points more than van der Linde and eight points more than Engel on the opening day of racing. That would give him an insurmountable lead heading into Sunday.
This means that if Bortolotti takes pole position and wins on Saturday, he can seal the title if van der Linde rival finishes fifth or lower and Engel does not end up on the podium. Even a fourth place for van der Linde would suffice for Bortolotti if his South African rival qualifies lower than second and does not score the additional two points.
If Bortolotti finishes sixth or less in the first race, the fight will go down the wire on Sunday regardless of how his two rivals perform.
If the SSR Lamborghini driver does not score any points in Saturday qualifying, even a fourth place would ensure that the title fight will be decided on the last day of the season.
However, the Italian does not necessarily have to fight for victory in the final weekend: two podium finishes, either second or third, would in all probability be enough for Bortolotti to secure the coveted DTM crown for the first time. Because then van der Linde would have to win at least one of the two races to swing the fight in his favour.
How Kelvin van der Linde can become the 2024 champion
The elder of the van der Linde brothers may not be able to emulate Sheldon's 2022 success on his own. Even a perfect weekend, with two wins and two poles, would not guarantee the South African the championship.
If Bortolotti were to follow him and finish second in both races and qualifying sessions, the Lamborghini driver would still end up three points clear. On his final weekend driving an Audi, the Abt driver may therefore need some misfortune to hit his chief rival in order to win a title that slipped from his grasp in the controversial 2021 finale.
For the 28-year-old, it will be important to make up as many points as possible on Saturday to keep himself in the fight. He cannot afford to lose more than 14 points to Bortolotti on the first of the two race days if he wants to add a DTM title to a CV that includes two ADAC GT Masters titles, and as many wins in the Nurburgring 24 Hours.
If van der Linde driver finishes ahead of Bortolotti, the title will definitely not be decided until Sunday. Regardless of where Bortolotti finishes on Saturday, he would keep the title fight open with a podium finish in the first race.
However, it would be advisable to win from pole position in at least one of the two final races in Hockenheim. This would significantly improve van der Linde's chances of success. If he manages to achieve this feat on Saturday and Bortolotti only finishes fourth, the two drivers will be level on points at the top of the table again before the last race.
If Bortolotti and van der Linde finish the season with the same number of points, the latter would have a decisive advantage regardless of the Hockenheim results. Because while the Lamborghini driver celebrated his first victory of the season only last time at Spielberg, van der Linde has already been on the top step of the podium twice this year. If they end up level on points, the number of wins will decide who gets to lift the championship trophy.
How Maro Engel can win the 2024 DTM title
Maro Engel has the lowest chance of all three title contenders. If the Mercedes-AMG driver doesn't take any risks on Saturday, he would have to bury his title hopes early.
That’s because if Bortolotti scores at least eight points more than him in the first race, he would already be out of the championship reckoning.
If Bortolotti ends up third on Saturday, Engel would have to finish between fourth to seventh, depending on the qualifying result, in order to remain in the title hunt. Should Bortolotti finish second, the newly-crowned GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup champion would also have to finish on the podium to maintain his title chances.
If Bortolotti manages a perfect Saturday, following up pole position with victory, Engel would be left in a precarious situation. He would have to qualify in the top three and finish the race in second place to keep a mathematical chance of winning the title.
Second place on Sunday would be enough to finish the year on the same number of points, but Bortolotti would have more wins to his name.
It is not unlikely that the number of victories will ultimately decide who wins the 2024 DTM title. In many calculations, Bortolotti and Engel end up on the same number of points. The Mercedes-AMG driver would therefore be well advised to put all on the line to win Saturday’s race.
Then he would not only score a big chunk of points and keep his small hope of winning the title alive, but would also have - just like Bortolotti - a victory under his belt.
If they finish equal on points and race wins, the number of second places would decide and Engel is currently ahead with five second places compared to four for Bortolotti.
Teams’ and manufacturers’ titles
BMW squad Schubert Motorsport leads the championship by 39 points over Abt, having benefitted from its status as the DTM’s only three-car team.
Winward, SSR Performance and HRT - the Mercedes squad welcoming Jules Gounon for his series debut this weekend in place of an unwell Luca Stolz - are also very much in the frame for the title.
In the manufacturers’ championship, Mercedes is on top with 384 points, followed by Lamborghini (360), BMW (337) and Audi (301).
Hockenheim is poised to be Audi’s final appearance in the DTM, with long-time partner Abt splitting with the German marque to join forces with Lamborghini.
