It is clear now that Wes Streeting is planning to resign to trigger a leadership election against Sir Keir Starmer.
Allies of Mr Streeting have confirmed with The Independent that this is the health secretary’s intention – although he is yet to make the plunge.
We still do not know the details of the 16-minute showdown that Mr Streeting had with the prime minister on Wednesday morning in Number 10. But it is clear from those close to Mr Streeting what path he now plans to take.
The only question that remains is why the prime minister simply does not sack his health secretary now – and dare the leadership hopeful to stand against him?
We know though that Sir Keir has decided to wait it out and Downing Street has declared even that he has quotes “full confidence” in the man set to leave his government. He has arguably just spectacularly failed a test of strength.
It plays into one of the criticisms against Sir Keir is that he has allowed himself to be a prisoner of events and has been forced to follow, rather than lead.
A long line of U-turns, the significant retreat on welfare reform, and scores of MPs demanding he stand down have all highlighted a prime minister who is not in control.
The one thing he should do even now after declaring “full confidence” in Streeting – to show he has the strength to hold on – is to sack a man who apparently plans to resign anyway. By doing that, the prime minister would signal he is in charge and has the strength to take on his opponents and critics.
At this point, Sir Keir has little to lose by sacking Mr Streeting unless he does not believe he will actually resign.
We know that the PM came close to sacking Mr Streeting for trying to organise a leadership coup in December. And, as reported by The Independent earlier this year, we know Sir Keir has been considering sacking the health secretary again for disloyalty as part of a wider reshuffle.
For his part, that reshuffle could mean the embattled PM clears out some of those who have been disloyal – and may give him a chance to reestablish his authority.
Given the seniority of the health secretary’s position in the government hierarchy, it will need to be an established cabinet minister who takes the job.
This could be chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Darren Jones, a key ally of Starmer, or perhaps housing secretary Steve Reed or welfare secretary Pat McFadden.
Home secretary Shabana Mahmood and foreign secretary Yvette Cooper, who both privately told him to stand down earlier this week, would be under threat. Energy secretary Ed Miliband, who is also believed to be eyeing a leadership bid, may be under threat too.
Others who have not performed well could be ousted – culture secretary Lisa Nandy (an ally of Andy Burnham) and Welsh secretary Jo Stevens would top that list.
Then he could also bring in others to reshape his cabinet. The PM said he wants Angela Rayner back. Bringing Ms Rayner in as health secretary could close off one line of threat against him, if she accepts. And Louise Haigh is a name to watch.
But this is the moment where Sir Keir can finally take charge of the situation – and prove to his party he is the leader who won them a massive majority less than two years ago.
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