HARRISBURG, Pa. — The matchup is finally set: Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman will face Republican Mehmet Oz in the November election, in what's expected to be one of the most-watched and expensive Senate races in U.S. history.
Political pundits and experts can only characterize the race as unprecedented and unpredictable. It won't compare to any race before, as both candidates try to paint themselves as political outsiders. A celebrity doctor and a progressive giant, both vying to win the open seat being vacated by Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey — and in turn, control the majority of the 50-50 U.S. Senate.
"It's going to be close, it's going to be intense and it's an important state," said Stephen Medvic, a political science and government professor at Franklin & Marshall College. "When you couple that with the gubernatorial race, all national political eyes are going to be on Pennsylvania the whole summer and fall."
On the surface, the matchup between the two candidates couldn't look more different.
Fetterman, 52, is a towering, burly man covered in tattoos and wears "the working man's" Carhartt apparel. He made a name for himself nationally, in part based on his appearance and hoodie-and-gym-shorts style. The former mayor of Braddock and York County-native spent his campaign visiting rural, blue-collar areas across the state that Democrats usually ignore. He has cultivated a brand that screams "Not your typical politician."
Oz, 61, is a slim, coiffed celebrity doctor made for TV. He's lived a number of lives: one as a respected cardiothoracic surgeon who patented life-saving medical devices still used in heart surgeries, another as an "Oprah" guest-turned-host of his own daytime TV show. He moved from his longtime residence in New Jersey to Pennsylvania to start the latest version of himself as a novice politician. He comes across as well-rehearsed yet honest, a balance mastered over 13 years hosting the "Dr. Oz" show. His dark eyebrows furrow as he repeats his campaign slogan that he's worried voters don't see the "sparkle in each other's eyes" anymore.
Digging deeper, however, both candidates have obvious weaknesses their opponent will be quick to capitalize on, experts said.
In Fetterman's case, he lacks political allies from his own party since he first entered state politics in 2016, the year he first ran unsuccessfully for this seat. He suffered a stroke just before Election Day, and didn't disclose or continue proper treatment for the heart condition that caused it until last week. He has boasted his leadership experience as the mayor of Braddock for 13 years, though he's been criticized for how he led the town and the community still has a high poverty rate.
"[Oz] has these actual accomplishments to hang his hat on," said Sam DeMarco, the chairman of the Republican Committee of Allegheny County. "People who don't know Braddock don't realize the lack of progress there. ... In many ways, things have gone backwards."
Republicans already started using a successful page from their playbook, with an ad released last week before the GOP candidate was finalized, in which it paints Fetterman as a Bernie Sanders-aligned socialist. Fetterman has campaigned for Sanders, and vice versa.
In Oz's case, he won the May primary by less than 1,000 votes, with former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick conceding to him Friday. He faced hundreds of attack ads from McCormick, painting him as a Hollywood elite who changed his views to run for this seat. He has testified before a congressional committee in 2014 for endorsing diet scams on his show. He grew up in Delaware and has spent most of his adult life in New Jersey, which Fetterman's campaign was also quick to start attacking, as his campaign started selling "Dr. Oz for NJ, Fetterman for PA" bumper stickers.
"[Oz has] got more baggage than the Pittsburgh Airport," said Mike Mikus, a Pittsburgh-based Democratic strategist. "What most voters are looking for is not the cookie-cutter politician whose just gonna go whatever way the public opinion swings. John Fetterman doesn't look like a politician, he doesn't act like a politician. ... Dr. Oz will take any position that will benefit him politically."
Oz was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. This could, in itself, be a challenge for Oz to overcome in the general election where Democrats hold a more than 500,000 voter-registration edge over Republicans and more than 1 million independent voters.
To Medvic, there are only two things that are certain about this race: The midterm elections are going to be tough for Democrats, and it's going to break spending records.
"This is where the science is clear; it's going to be a really bad year for Democrats," Medvic added. "In a bad economy with a president with a low approval rating, it's bad for the president's party, no matter who the candidate is."
In 2016, Mikus worked on Democrat Katie McGinty's Senate campaign to unseat Toomey.
"It became the most expensive race in history, and it would not surprise me if this one shatters records," Mikus said. "Sadly, for voters, they're going to be seeing lots and lots of television commercials."
Rising inflation and gas prices will unite voters against Democratic candidates, DeMarco said.
"Any perceived [Republican party] fractures are being healed by Joe Biden and the Democratic party," DeMarco added.
The real wildcard is whether Oz can motivate and win-over voters in rural parts of the state, Medvic said. The Trump endorsement will help, but can the millionaire, celebrity doctor win them over?
"It remains to be seen whether he really connects with and resonates with rural voters," he added.
Fetterman hopes to "trim the margins" in these rural, GOP-controlled counties, Mikus said.
"That's how you win as a Democrat in this state: You do well in the big cities, do well in the suburbs and then you cut the margins in more rural counties," Mikus said. "John Fetterman has the ability to do that."
Will Fetterman's health play much of a role in this campaign? It's unlikely, Medvic said.
Health issues usually only stick as a point of concern for voters when it reinforces something they already believe, Medvic said. For example, former presidential candidate Bob Dole in 1996 was criticized for his age, running for the top office at age 73. When he fell off a stage in California during a campaign event, that reinforced earlier notions that he might be too feeble for the position, Medvic said. He went on to lose the election to former President Bill Clinton.
Because the health issues were unknown previously, Fetterman's health will likely stay off the radar — unless he has another health issue while on the campaign trail, Medvic added.
DeMarco, however, said Pennsylvanians should question if he can physically handle the grind of a campaign and the work of an elected official.
"We all wish Fetterman the best as he recovers from his stroke, but it should also concern Pennsylvanians on whether he's healthy enough to carry out his duties, not just during the campaign but should he become the next United States senator," DeMarco added.
