The College Football Playoff picture remains wide open, especially in the SEC, which is littered with teams that remain firmly in the mix for the 12-team field. With one loss apiece, Mississippi and Oklahoma were chief among them entering their Week 9 game in Norman, Okla.
Saturday's game was a significant hinge point in the schedules for both teams. The Rebels have an extremely manageable slate down the stretch, even if there are no wins you can pencil in during SEC play—especially in the Egg Bowl rivalry game against Mississippi State to end the year. The Sooners, meanwhile, have about as daunting a finish to the season as one can imagine.
After a back-and-forth second half, Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss came out on top with a 34–26 victory—a crucial road result that puts the Rebels in tremendous position to reach the CFP. Brent Venables's Oklahoma team, meanwhile, dropped a huge opportunity to stay afloat. They have plenty of other opportunities to pick up big wins down the stretch, but it is becoming more difficult to envision them avoiding a disqualifying number of losses.
Fischer: College Football Playoff Bracket Week 9 Live Projections
Ole Miss moves to 7–1 (4–1) on the season with the win, while Oklahoma falls to 6–2 (2–2). Here’s how Ole Miss's win impacts the CFP race for both teams.
How Ole Miss defeated Oklahoma
Saturday's game echoed Mississippi's loss at Georgia a week ago in many ways. After trading early scores, the Rebels jumped on the Sooners late in the first half, dropping Tory Blalock in OU's end zone for a safety to go up 12–10. The ensuing possession was a bit of a missed opportunity for Ole Miss; Lane Kiffin opted to plug in Week 1 starting quarterback Austin Simmons near the end zone after Trinidad Chambliss gashed the Sooners defense to set up a score. After a pair of bad incompletions, the Rebs had to settle for a field goal. Kiffin wisely put the ball back in Chambliss's hands—along with plenty of runs for Kewan Lacy—after the defense forced a turnover on downs, and Ole Miss entered the half up 22–10.
Oklahoma came out of the break with renewed energy, and John Mateer led the Sooners on three consecutive scoring drives after opening the third quarter with a punt, taking their first lead of the game at 26–25 entering the fourth quarter. Chambliss and the Rebels would answer early in the fourth, with a touchdown pass to Trace Bruckler to reclaim the lead. The defenses would take over for the remainder of the fourth quarter, with Ole Miss managing one more field goal while preventing the Sooners from adding to their total.
Chambliss finished with 314 passing yards and a touchdown on 24-of-44 passing, adding 53 yards with his legs. Lacy was a bellcow for the Rebs, toting the rock 27 times for 79 yards and a pair of scores, while Winston Watkins caught four passes for 110 yards.
John Mateer was 17-for-31 for 223 yards and a score, but was limited to just 17 yards on the ground, and missed a number of throws on Oklahoma's final drive. Xavier Robinson picked up 109 yards and two scores on just nine carries, while Isaiah Sategna III had six receptions for 131 yards and a score in a losing effort.
Following the win, Lane Kiffin said he was glad to see his team win the game on defense after struggling on that end of the ball a week ago in Athens. That kind of balanced football will serve his team well down the stretch.
With Ole Miss's win…
WINSTON 🤯 WATKINS 🤯@winstonwatkins_ | #HottyToddy pic.twitter.com/Sp6lLa8zgV
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) October 25, 2025
Mississippi may have the most manageable November slate in the SEC, putting them in tremendous shape to make a run at the CFP. Oklahoma was the final ranked team on the Rebels' schedule based on the Week 9 rankings, and it is unlikely that they will see another in the regular season from here on out.
That doesn't mean that no traps lie ahead. South Carolina has disappointed this season, but the Gamecocks still have a dynamic quarterback in LaNorris Sellers. The same can be said for Florida and DJ Lagway, who also sport a strong defense. Time will tell how the Gators respond after Billy Napier's dismissal.
The Egg Bowl can never be taken lightly, and Mississippi State is much improved in 2025. Jeff Lebby's team would love nothing more than to knock their intrastate rival out of playoff contention. Ole Miss may even be able to survive a loss, especially with their first coming in a tight game against Georgia in Athens. With this schedule, Kiffin & Co. should have 11–1 on the brain, which would put them in the driver's seat to host a first-round playoff game, if not earn a trip to the SEC championship and/or a potential CFP bye.
Ole Miss's 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 9 AP Top 25.
With Oklahoma's loss…
The Sooners are officially in the danger zone.
Neither of Oklahoma's losses are terrible, though in a weird twist of fate, the Sooners would probably like to see Arch Manning and Texas get things in gear after the Longhorns dominated the Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma will also have the argument that Mateer was fresh off of hand surgery in the Texas loss, should they put themselves in a position to be in the playoff mix.
The loss to Ole Miss—while also against a top opponent—may make it difficult for them to be in that position, however. A second loss isn't disqualifying on its own, and a three-loss team with a great résumé may even get in in the right circumstance, but beginning with Saturday's game, Oklahoma has to contend with an absolute gauntlet of a schedule down the stretch. Next week, they head to Neyland Stadium to face Tennessee, and after a bye, head to Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on Alabama. They're in Norman for the final two games, but those come against Missouri and LSU—two teams that are also sniffing around the playoff mix. Go 10–2 with that schedule, and Oklahoma is a slam dunk to make the field, but even before the Ole Miss game, ESPN's Football Power Index gave Venables's team just a 1% chance to win out.
The margin for error for Oklahoma has been eliminated.
Oklahoma's 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 9 AP Top 25.
Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Ole Miss, Oklahoma
Entering Saturday's game, Mississippi looked to be in better shape for the CFP than Oklahoma, in large part because of the Sooners' loss being a blowout to a less-than-impressive Texas (while the Rebels' fell in a competitive game at Georgia).
After Week 8, SI's Pat Forde had Ole Miss occupying the No. 10 seed in his projected playoff bracket, in line for a first-round trip to face No. 7 BYU. Oklahoma, meanwhile, was in his "also considered" section. Bryan Fischer had the Rebels in the same No. 10 spot, but with a trip to Eugene to take on No. 7 Oregon.
After their win on Saturday, Fischer moved the Rebels up to the No. 7 spot in his projection, in line to host Georgia Tech in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, the Sooners are on the outside of the bracket, at least for now.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Ole Miss's Win at Oklahoma Impacts Both Teams' College Football Playoff Chances.
