Treasurer Jim Chalmers has returned from talks with some of his G20 finance ministerial colleagues in Washington DC, armed with new information that will inform next month’s budget. While Chalmers said he’s still aiming for another surplus, the DC meetings have given the Labor treasurer some pause.
Chalmers told reporters there were five major global influences that will impact the Australian bottom line: “Inflation is lingering in North America; growth is slowing in China and elsewhere; tensions are rising in the Middle East and are prolonged and dug in in Eastern Europe; supply chains are fragmenting; and the global economy is transforming.”
In another instalment of Crikey’s Paint by Numbers series, we take a look at the figures informing the next budget.
Date of the next federal budget: May 14
Surplus forecast in last year’s budget for the financial year 2022-23: $4.2 billion
Number of times a surplus had been “delivered” in the preceding 14 years: Zero
Number of times Chalmers has mentioned achieving a surplus since the 2023 budget: At least 141 times by Crikey’s count
Likelihood Chalmers is keen to achieve another surplus in this year’s budget: 100%
2023-24 deficit projected in last year’s budget: $13.9 billion
2023-24 deficit projected in December’s mid-year budget update: $1.1 billion
Economic turnaround compared with the forecast inherited from the previous government: $100 billion
Value of Australia’s iron ore exports in 2023: $136.1 billion
Proportion of those exports that went to China: 85%
Projected downturn in Chinese steel demand by 2050 compared with 2019 levels, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia: 80%
Proportion of world oil exports originating from the Middle East: 35%
Proportion of world gas exports originating from the Middle East: 14%
World Trade Organisation projection of global economy shrinkage if the global community fully fragments into two rival blocs, one supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and one opposing: 5%
United States price increases over the 12 months to March, 2024: 3.5%
