The accepted wisdom is that keeping big numbers off your scorecard is absolutely vital if you want a chance of winning a Major Championship. Of course, it’s not the only factor, but generally speaking, you have to keep mistakes to a minimum.
The logic is sound – losing two strokes or more on one hole is a hammer blow when so many world-class players are vying for the title. Plus, it can inflict a damaging psychological wound and seriously curb momentum – something that’s hard to get back when it turns against you, especially in the cauldron of a Major.
But is making a double-bogey or worse a death knell or merely something that’s difficult to recover from? To find out, I looked back at every winner’s scorecard from The Masters, PGA Championship, US Open and Open Championship since 2000 to see what the data revealed…
Since the turn of the millennium, 97 Majors have been contested. Some 36 of those were claimed by golfers who finished 72 holes with a double-bogey on the scorecard. So, 37% of Major-winning professionals from the last 24-and-a-half years have made a double-bogey and gone on to claim the title.
The next men’s Major is the US Open, which is taking place this week at Pinehurst No.2 in North Carolina. It’s usually the hardest of all the Major tests, but that doesn’t mean you can get away with dropping multiple shots on one hole.
Only ten of the last 24 winners have registered a double or worse throughout the course of the tournament and landed the trophy. Only one champion since 2019 has – Jon Rahm in 2021 at Torrey Pines.
Rahm is something of an anomaly as he also doubled a hole – the very first hole – at Augusta in 2023 en route to donning the Green Jacket.
The Masters is the tournament where you’re least likely to win if you rack up a double-bogey or higher – only six of the last 25 victors have done so.
The event where you’re most likely to get away with a double is the PGA Championship. Since 2000, 46% of the winners – 11 out of 25 – have shot at least two-over-par on one hole or more.
At The Open, nine of the last 24 golfers to reign supreme have done so with double-bogeys or worse on their card.
All in all, eight golfers this millennium have made double or worse on more than one hole and become champions. In the 2011 PGA Championship, Keegan Bradley had two doubles and one triple and still won the Wanamaker Trophy.
