U.S. economic growth will likely come in at 3.3% for the third quarter of 2025, according to traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi. This is based on traders placing the odds at economic growth coming in above 2.5% at 83%, the odds of economic growth coming in above 3% at 63%, and the odds of economic growth coming in above 3.5% at just 37%.
This would mean a sharp uptick from the advance gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate of 3% for Q2, signaling rising optimism around consumer resilience and business investment.
