In taking a moment to catch our breath after the Receiver Market Explosion of 2022—which began in earnest last March when the Raiders traded Davante Adams for first- and second-round picks, and ended in July when the 49ers signed Deebo Samuel to a three-year extension worth $71,550,000—it’s fair to wonder what might happen for the next crop of receivers.
Specifically, that’s the financial futures of the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase and the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson. The two are younger than—and possibly better than—any of the receivers who dominated this offseason. If receiver market behavior mirrors that of most other robust positional markets, we’ll have a game of AAV (average annual value) leapfrog, with each deal slightly eclipsing the last. Receivers will also start to close the gap on quarterbacks in terms of total cap percentage faster than any other position. At the moment, only two nonquarterbacks have an AAV of $30 million or more: Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald ($31.6 million) and Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill ($30 million). Adams ($28 million) and Cooper Kupp ($26.7 million) both have higher AAV than Myles Garrett ($25 million), Khalil Mack ($23.5 million), Maxx Crosby ($23.5 million) and Trent Williams ($23 million), a collection of pass rushers and protectors who, before this summer, made up the list of the most well-compensated nonquarterbacks in football.
So we asked three NFL agents where they would place the monetary value of Chase’s and Jefferson’s second deals. Jefferson, who will be eligible for a contract extension next offseason, would obviously sign a deal before Chase, who can’t negotiate until after the 2023 season. (And, for the record, none of these agents represent Chase nor Jefferson.)
