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FOR some on the SNP payroll, a unilateral declaration of independence is something of an inside joke.
It typifies for them the sort of “unrealistic” pressure they perceive from the grassroots to achieve Scotland’s independence as soon as possible.
But new polling for The National has produced the bombshell finding that the Scottish Government declaring independence without Westminster’s permission would have the backing of 45% of voters, if don’t knows are excluded.
Including those undecided, that figure falls but remains a sizable chunk of the population at 35%, while those against stand at 42%.
A demand that many leaders of the independence movement would like to paint as fringe suddenly appears far more mainstream.
Support rises to a clear majority among SNP voters, of whom 69% said they’d “strongly support” Holyrood declaring independence without Westminster’s permission, with just 9% against.
Green voters are less hot on the idea but not by much.
Of those who voted Green at the last General Election, 44% said they would “strongly support” a unilateral declaration of independence and 10% said they’d “somewhat support” it. Some 20% were against the idea.
Those figures are enough to give the pro-independence parties pause, but perhaps even more remarkable is the substantial minority support among those who voted for the Unionists at the last Westminster election.
A stunning one in four LibDem voters say they’d support Holyrood unilaterally declaring Scotland an independent country and 19% of Labour voters agreed. Among those who didn’t vote, the figure stands at 28%, while 21% of Reform UK voters backed the idea.
For supporters of a unilateral declaration of independence, these are strongly encouraging figures.
They will say that a universal declaration of independence is the exact sort of thing that can force a new political reality into existence. It certainly would put the argument in far blunter terms than the SNP’s now practically symbolic requests for a referendum, which are invariably ignored.
Its success would likely depend on whether it can be taken up by the masses as a grand democratic project of nation building. Sceptics should look to the way ordinary people rose to that challenge during the 2014 referendum campaign.
And the first referendum campaign also reminds us that politics is fundamentally about persuasion. Polling tells us how people think and feel right now; it is the job of activists and politicians to move those numbers.
But the reality is that a unilateral declaration of independence is not without its risks, not least of all war.
If you think Westminster responds to a polite email from John Swinney with imperious arrogance, just imagine what the response would be if Holyrood unilaterally declared a third of the UK’s landmass independent.
There is also the distinct possibility it would end in failure, as has happened throughout history including in the examples of Biafra, Anguilla, Katanga, and Catalonia.
Countries around the world – especially those with outstanding constitutional questions – may not recognise an independent Scotland. The UK would be unlikely to make life easy for a fledgling breakaway state.
Then there are the people who we would expect to take this declaration forward. The SNP, as the largest pro-independence party by far, would be the natural candidates.
But the party’s gradualist tendency has long ruled the roost. Despite recent clashes of personalities, this trend is unbroken from Alex Salmond to Swinney, and back again. A fundamental caution defines the SNP’s instincts.
It is virtually impossible to imagine them deciding that a unilateral declaration of independence is the way forward, even if only as a means to force a second referendum.
There are other options, too, like seeking to take advantage of what looks likely to be a hung parliament come the next General Election.
Maybe there could be a referendum on having a referendum – which would likely excite the Scotland Office’s lawyers, but could move the conversation forward.
Our findings earlier this week showed that 52% of Scots would back independence if a referendum was held tomorrow, proving that the movement is in the lead.
And now we know even apparently controversial options are more mainstream than may be assumed.
The question, however, remains as unsettled as ever: how do we get there?
