How many points Nottingham Forest need to seal Premier…

How many points Nottingham Forest need to seal Premier League safety as Newcastle battle looms

Nottingham Forest find themselves in the midst of a nine-team fight to avoid relegation from the Premier League this season - their first after a 23-year exile.

It is a battle made harder by their 3-1 defeat at Tottenham on Saturday, a reverse that leaves them 14th on 26 points - just two outside the relegation places and with a far inferior goal difference compared to some of their rivals.

In recent weeks, Forest have also lost heavily at West Ham and drawn at home with Everton, two of their big rivals for a place in the top flight next season.

It is against that backdrop - and a run of five games without a win - that they play Newcastle United at the City Ground on Friday (8pm kick-off) needing to claim three points. It will be a tall order for Steve Cooper's injury-hit team, but home draws against Manchester City and Chelsea, plus a famous victory over Liverpool, will give them hope.

Perceived wisdom has it that 38 points are enough to guarantee safety in the top-flight - an average of a point per match since the Premier League switched to a 20-team division at the start of the 1995/96 season.

However, in recent years that key survival number has been even lower. Since the start of the 2011/12 season, the average number of points needed to ensure safety has been 35.09, a drop compared to the average of 36.22 from the 27 Premier League seasons featuring 20 teams.

In fact, only once in the last 11 years has 38 points been required - and in the 2020/21 season just 29 points would have been enough for safety. Furthermore, in the 27 Premier League seasons prior to this campaign, on only six occasions has a side required more than 38 points to survive - with 2010/11 being the last time.

Only three times has in excess of 40 points been needed to stay up. The 1996/97 and 1997/98 seasons saw 41 points needed, while in 2002/03 West Ham went down despite having 42, a Premier League record.

So, how does that leave Forest and their relegation rivals as the 2022/23 season enters its final phase?

Based on a points-per-game average, 36 will be sufficient to stay up this term, with 18th-placed Bournemouth currently on track to finish on 35. And although West Ham, Leicester City and Everton are all currently above the Cherries in the table, they are also on track to end with 35 points - worrying times indeed.

As for Forest, to end the campaign with at least 36 points - the survival mark in seven of the last eight seasons and the likely total needed again this term - they must take another 10 points from their remaining 12 matches. That equates to more than three wins, but which seems eminently achievable when considering that Forest have claimed 13 points from their 11 league games since football resumed after the World Cup.

The concern for Reds fans, though, will be that Cooper's team have seen their form drop off considerably in recent weeks. And with an international break in the offing, it is anyone's guess how Forest will reappear for the run-in.

Here is a look at the current bottom nine and how many points they are likely to finish on based on their points per game record so far this season...

12th - Crystal Palace - 39

13th - Wolves - 38

14th - Nottingham Forest - 38

15th - Everton - 35

16th - Leicester City - 35

17th - West Ham United - 35

18th - Bournemouth - 35

19th - Leeds United - 34

20th - Southampton - 32