More than a spark, the Patriots offense needs proof Monday night.
Proof that Mac Jones and Co. can still beat up on bad teams. Proof that their system can ratchet up their aggression when necessary. Proof that they can score enough to be competitive over a five-game finishing stretch that will make or break their postseason hopes.
Despite the lack of production and proof since he retook the reins in Week 7, Jones is optimistic.
“It’s kind of a new season here, and it starts with this one with the Cardinals and that’s what we’re going to focus on,” he said last week. “We’re in a good spot.”
Here’s how Jones and the Patriots can prove it Monday night:
1. Identify the blitzers
Sand, cacti and sunsets over a distant mountain range aside, if there’s one thing the Pats can bank on seeing in Arizona, it’s the blitz.
The Cardinals blitz on 35.3% of their defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the league. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is known for bringing extra rushers from a variety of alignments and dialing up a myriad of coverages behind those blitzes. Before the Patriots can burn Arizona for long gains, Jones must identify where pressure is coming from to avoid breakdowns in protection and unload the ball quickly.
“You just got to go through your reads and take it and whatever they give you, you take it,” Jones said. “If they give you the deep ball, take it. (If) they give you the short, take it. No different than any other week, just they do spin the dial a lot and keep you guessing, and they’ve done that really well this year.”
The Cardinals love blitzing their edge rushers, as well as off-ball linebacker Zaven Collins. With questions persisting at both of the Patriots’ offensive tackle positions, the edges of the pocket may be a battleground that decides Monday’s game.
2. Feed Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson
In addition to blitzing frequently, Collins ranks among the league’s best coverage linebackers.
He’s defended running backs and tight ends fairly well over the middle. As for the rest of the Cardinals defenders? Not so much.
Arizona’s pass defense ranks third-worst in the league against running backs and tight ends, per Football Outsiders’ opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric, DVOA. That should suit the Patriots, who have made running back Rhamondre Stevenson their leading rusher and receiver. If the Cardinals effort to take him away, the Pats should find tight end Hunter Henry.
Cardinals safeties Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson have allowed a combined seven touchdowns this season in coverage. If Arizona sends the house at Jones inside the red zone, look for him to throw one up to his 6-foot-5 tight end who's long overdue for a breakout game.
3. Run off-tackle
For a run defense that ranks among the NFL's worst, the Cardinals have a surprisingly stout interior.
They're allowing just 3.0 yards per attempt between the tackles, third-best in the league, per Sports Info. Solutions. But off-tackle? That average shoots up to 5.7 yards per carry.
Therefore, expect the Pats to hit Arizona with heavy doses of their staple power and counter runs, plus toss plays and some misdirection involving jet action to get a fast-flowing defense over-pursuing in the wrong direction. The Patriots have found some success in turning their opponents' aggression against them this season. Monday should present an opportunity to do that a game.
A productive run game will also prevent Joseph from having the chance to dial up exotic blitzes in obvious passing situations.
"He’s going to show you one thing and bring something else and that’s how he’s always been," Jones said of Joseph. "He’s had great success with it, and they obviously have the talent to be able to do that and it takes smart football players, which they have, and you see it on film. They bring a lot of different guys from a lot of different places."
The better the Pats can run off tackle, the greater the control they'll have over the game and their future, even with another kickoff in the desert looming later this week.
