London has seen a slight decline in secondary school applications this year, a trend directly linked to the capital's ongoing falling birth rate.
Figures released on National Secondary Offer Day show 86,057 applications for places, a 1.6% decrease from last year's 87,512.
This follows a 3.1% drop in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating a sustained downward trend.
Despite the overall fall, the proportion of children securing preferred schools remained largely stable.
London Councils reported 70.5% of applicants received an offer from their first-choice secondary school for 2026, a marginal 1.1 percentage point decrease from 2025.
A significant 89.6% were offered one of their top three preferences, and 94.3% secured at least one of their chosen schools, consistent with the previous year.
This decline in secondary applications reflects a broader demographic shift in the capital, where a rapidly falling birth rate has already prompted several councils to consider primary school closures or mergers.
That means 4,862 children did not receive an offer for one of their preferred schools for 2026.
Councillor Ian Edwards, London Councils’ executive member for children and young people, said: “We are delighted that the overwhelming majority of London’s children have been offered a place at one of their preferred schools.
“Whilst pupil numbers are continuing to fall, boroughs have worked in close partnership with their local schools to make sure sufficient places are available to meet demand.”
Children were most likely to receive their first preference of secondary school in Barking and Dagenham, where 83.1% got their preferred school. They were the least likely in Greenwich, where 60.2% got their first preference this year.
Jon Abbey, chairman of the Pan-London Admissions Board, said some families do not get their first preference due to demand for a particular school exceeding places available, but there are enough places in London to meet overall demand.
London Councils has predicted a 3.8% drop in demand for secondary school places over the next four years, translating to around 112 classes.
The entire country has seen the impact of falling birth rates on primary school rolls over the past few years, but London has seen some of the steepest declines.
The Education Policy Institute found last year that nine of the 10 local authorities that have seen the largest drops in primary pupils over the past five years were in London.
A population bulge in England has been moving into secondary schools, but the Department for Education said in July that it expected pupil numbers to peak in 2026/27.
The total number of children under 16 in England is expected to fall by 6% over the next decade.
Schools are funded on a per-pupil basis, which means falling rolls are a big concern for them, as big declines are associated with school closures.
Teach First CEO James Toop said: “In our current system, postcode determines opportunity, not potential. With the best schools carrying expensive postcodes for housing, fewer and fewer disadvantaged pupils are accessing their preferred school, shutting them out of the brilliant education they deserve.”
“This School Offers Day ought to act as a wake-up call to weight funding and financial incentives towards schools and teachers serving the areas and pupils that need them most,” he added.
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