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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Peter Hannam

How likely is another La Niña for Australia in 2024?

The Coomera river cuts off Clagiraba Road on the Gold Coast on 2 January 2024.
The Coomera river cuts off Clagiraba Road on the Gold Coast on 2 January 2024. Work by Wenju Cai, a leading CSIRO researcher, and others, has pointed to an increase in more extreme El Niños and La Niñas as the planet heats up. Photograph: Dave Hunt/AAP

Eastern Australia is enduring a relatively wet and, in some regions, mild summer, belying expectations an El Niño event in the Pacific would mean a dry, hot season. Some are even forecasting a La Niña may return for the fourth year in five.

How likely is another La Niña so soon and what are the challenges facing forecasters? But first, a summary of where we are now.

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