Back in 2019, Poland’s Konfederacja party was seen as a curiosity rather than an actual political player. Counting just 11 members in the 460-people-strong Sejm, the lower house of the Polish parliament, it was not even an actual party in a legal sense, but a coalition composed of two very unlikely bedfellows—a libertarian faction of deregulation aficionados that joined the leadership of the National Movement, a far-right Catholic group with decisively anti-European, xenophobic views. Separately, these two entities stood no chance of crossing the 5 percent electoral threshold, but together they managed to secure the backing of more than 1.2 million voters, which translated into 6.81 percent support and gave them a foot in the door to mainstream politics.
These days, Konfederacja, consolidated under the leadership of Slawomir Mentzen, a charismatic 36-year-old Thatcherite with a doctorate in economics and a talent for shooting viral TikTok videos, might tip the scale in the upcoming elections, scheduled for Oct. 15.
After eight consecutive years in power, Law and Justice (PiS), Poland’s nationalist-populist governing party, is struggling to mobilize its core electorate, which is displeased with worsening economic conditions, rising costs of living, and money channeled toward helping Ukrainian refugees. It looks almost certain that PiS will fall several seats short of forming a majority. But a similar outcome looms for the opposition, divided into three blocs and tormented by years of internal quarrels between its leaders.
