Twenty-three down, three to go for the NASCAR Cup Series regular season. And through the first 23 races of the year, there have now been 15 different winners, thanks to Kevin Harvick’s victory Sunday at Michigan International Speedway.
And with the top-16 drivers making the playoff cut for the 10-race postseason, Harvick’s win complicates the playoff picture a bit.
“Win and you’re in” might not be the case this season if there are more than 16 different race winners in the regular season, which ends August 27 at Daytona International Speedway. But for now, it is.
RELATED: What happens is NASCAR has more than 16 winners eligible for the playoffs?
While Harvick’s win locked him into the playoffs for now, it also notably knocked Martin Truex Jr., who’s winless so far this season, below the cut line, while Ryan Blaney, also winless in 2022, would be the last driver in if the playoffs began today.
Should 2022 produce more than 16 winners before the playoffs, the championship-contending field will feature the drivers with the most wins, and of those tied with one win apiece, the drivers with the most regular-season points will fill out the remaining playoff spots.
👀 #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/OOpFxz9bCh
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) August 8, 2022
So here’s a look at how Harvick’s win Sunday impacted the playoff picture and who’s sitting on the bubble with three regular-season races left. It’s based on drivers’ projected playoff rankings and projected playoff points, not where they sit in the regular-season standings.
And remember: When the playoffs begin, the 16 drivers fighting for the title will get 2,000 playoff points added to the playoff points they’ve already earned during the regular season, either through race or race stage wins.
1
Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Projected playoff rank: 1
Projected playoff points: 2040
Wins in 2022: 4
2
Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Projected playoff rank: 2
Projected playoff points: 2022
Wins in 2022: 2
3
Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford
Projected playoff rank: 3
Projected playoff points: 2017
Wins in 2022: 2
4
Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford
Projected playoff rank: 4
Projected playoff points: 2015
Wins in 2022: 0
Without a win, Blaney is 19 points above the playoff cut line. He’s currently the one and only winless driver in the playoff picture.
5
William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Projected playoff rank: 5
Projected playoff points: 2014
Wins in 2022: 2
6
Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Projected playoff rank: 6
Projected playoff points: 2014
Wins in 2022: 1
7
Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Projected playoff rank: 7
Projected playoff points: 2013
Wins in 2022: 2
8
Tyler Reddick, No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Projected playoff rank: 8
Projected playoff points: 2012
Wins in 2022: 2
9
Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Projected playoff rank: 9
Projected playoff points: 2011
Wins in 2022: 1
10
Kyle Busch, No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Projected playoff rank: 10
Projected playoff points: 2009
Wins in 2022: 1
11
Chase Briscoe, No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Projected playoff rank: 11
Projected playoff points: 2008
Wins in 2022: 1
12
Kurt Busch, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota
Projected playoff rank: 12
Projected playoff points: 2007
Wins in 2022: 1
Busch has missed the last three NASCAR races at Michigan, Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s road course and Pocono Raceway. In late July at Pocono, he crashed during qualifying and experienced concussion-like symptoms, and he has not yet been cleared to race.
However, NASCAR granted him a medical waiver to compete for the championship, despite not attempting to qualify for every race, which is typically a necessity for playoff eligibility. If the playoffs began today, he’d be in based off his win at Kansas Speedway back in May.
13
Kevin Harvick, No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Projected playoff rank: 13
Projected playoff points: 2007
Wins in 2022: 1
14
Daniel Suárez, No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Projected playoff rank: 14
Projected playoff points: 2007
Wins in 2022: 1
15
Austin Cindric, No. 2 Team Penske Ford
Projected playoff rank: 15
Projected playoff points: 2006
Wins in 2022: 1
16
Alex Bowman, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Projected playoff rank: 16
Projected playoff points: 2006
Wins in 2022: 1
17
Martin Truex Jr., No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Projected playoff rank: 17
Projected playoff points: N/A
Wins in 2022: 0
With Blaney being 19 points above the cut line for the playoffs, Truex is 19 points below it and will really be in trouble if there’s another new winner this season in the last three regular-season races.
18
Erik Jones, No. 43 Petty GMS Motorsports Chevrolet
Projected playoff rank: 18
Projected playoff points: N/A
Wins in 2022: 0
Jones is 190 points below the playoff cut line and will need a checkered flag to make the playoff field.
19
Aric Almirola, No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Projected playoff rank: 19
Projected playoff points: N/A
Wins in 2022: 0
Almirola is 210 points below the playoff cut line and will need to win to make the postseason in his final year before retiring.
20
Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota
Projected playoff rank: 20
Projected playoff points: N/A
Wins in 2022: 0
Wallace is 235 points below the playoff cut line and will need a win to make the playoff field — despite coming close with a runner-up finish to Harvick on Sunday at Michigan.
