How do you sell a major expansion of gas exploration in the face of commitments that Australia will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050?
The answer is a combination of spin and reliance on carbon capture and storage technology.
Like the emperor’s new clothes, the planned Middle Arm sustainable development precinct on Darwin harbour in the Northern Territory is being elaborately embroidered by the Albanese and Fyles governments with green phrases: “green hydrogen” “carbon capture and storage”, “sustainable industry” and “decarbonisation” – when in fact most of the project will be devoted to processing fossil gas from two proposed natural gas fields and petrochemical production – activities that critics say will add significantly to Australia’s carbon emissions.
NT Invest’s map of the proposed development shows only small parts of it will be devoted to truly green industries, such as green hydrogen made using renewable energy.
Its claim to being “sustainable” hinges on the implementation of CCS, including a project Santos plans to build at the soon-to-be-depleted Bayu Undan gas field 500km north-west of Darwin in waters controlled by Timor-Leste.
In turn, that CCS project is likely only to be viable if the massive planned gas expansion in the Beetaloo basin, as well as petrochemical manufacturing at Middle Arm, go ahead.
New documents obtained by the Guardian under freedom of information laws show this chicken-and-egg thinking is a crucial part of selling the interconnected developments.
‘‘The Middle Arm project is seen as a key enabler for Beetaloo gas to be transported north, further benefiting the NT economy,” one briefing document from the federal environment department says.
“The concentrated sources of CO2 from industrial processes at Middle Arm will improve the feasibility of carbon capture and storage. This will support the social licence of the Beetaloo Basin gas extraction and help meet the territory’s commitments not to increase emissions.”
But this claim that the project won’t increase emissions hinges on successful carbon capture and storage in an old oil field in Timorese waters – and on a scale almost three times the size of Chevron’s Gorgon plant.
Gorgon, one of the few large-scale CCS projects in the world, has missed its targets every year and is sequestering only 30% of the emissions promised.
A major rebranding exercise has been under way by the NT and the federal governments in relation to Middle Arm. Documents obtained by the ABC in December show the original business case for a “sustainable” development precinct described it as a “new gas demand centre”.
The 27-page application for funding, titled “Growing Advanced Manufacturing in the Northern Territory’s Middle Arm Industrial Precinct”, was submitted by the NT government to Infrastructure Australia in September 2020 in an attempt to secure $1.5bn in funding from the commonwealth.
While it referenced plans to manufacture renewable hydrogen and process critical minerals at Middle Arm, its primary focus was on the expansion of the NT’s gas industry.
“Successful gas industry development in the Northern Territory will unlock private sector investment and cascade benefits throughout Northern Australia and the Territory’s economy,” it stated.
The document also said gas sourced from the Beetaloo basin could create cost-effective options for companies looking to manufacture petrochemicals at Middle Arm.
Now, though, it’s hard to recognise Middle Arm as the same project.
“Developing marine infrastructure at Middle Arm will open new export opportunities in Northern Australia for commodities such as green hydrogen and critical minerals, with associated downstream opportunities for onshore processing and low-emission manufacturing,” the federal minister for resources, Madeline King, told an NT Resources Week conference in August.
A few weeks later the Albanese government confirmed its support for the project.
The $1.5bn in equity from the federal government is “providing a pathway to a decarbonised economy by helping emerging clean energy industries”, the minister for infrastructure, Catherine King, said in a budget release.
The ABC reported that staff in the NT Department of Chief Minister and Cabinet were tasked with removing the references to “petrochemicals” from more than a dozen government websites discussing Middle Arm.
This is despite the fact the government continues to seek approval from the NT Environment Protection Authority for “low-emission petrochemicals” to be among the mix of industries at Middle Arm.
Perhaps Middle Arm can be delivered as a sustainable industrial precinct that is powered by renewables.
But that would involve a major rethink. The current plan is based on a massive expansion of the gas industry and relies on a yet-to-be-designed CCS plant located beyond Australia’s jurisdiction to control a huge increase in the country’s emissions.
Before the Albanese government invests $1.5bn of taxpayer money in maritime infrastructure, it needs to look beyond the spin, level with the Australian public about what’s proposed and assess – using hard science – whether it jeopardises Australia’s commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
