Temperatures in central Scotland could soar by almost 5C by the 2070s if greenhouse gas emissions remain high, according to Met Office findings. That could see summer days around 35C, the data shows.
The Met Office’s UK Climate Predictions say that for a location in central Scotland, temperatures could be 0.6C to 4.8C warmer in 50 years time in a ‘high emission scenario’. The report adds that, in a low emission scenario, the change could be -0.1C cooler to 2.8C warmer.
A climate visualisation tool , created by the Met Office and the BBC using the weather service’s data, says the hottest summer day of the past 30 years around Glasgow city centre was 30.4C. The tool says that if global average temperatures increase by 2C to 4C above pre-industrial levels, the hottest summer day could be around 31.6C to 34.7C.
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The Met Office projections were released in 2018, when the UK saw the joint hottest summer since records began in 1910 - tying with those of 1976, 2003 and 2006. The findings showed that, in the recent past, the chance of seeing a summer as hot as 2018 was low - around 10%.
But, by mid-century, hot summers could become common - around 50%. And by the end of the century, if high greenhouse gas emissions continue, these hot summers will become even more likely.
Global warming could also lead to warmer, wetter winters in Scotland, according to the Met Office. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy downpours could become more frequent and more intense across the UK.
Dr Lizzie Kendon, a senior Met Office scientist, said: "I think it’s really frightening. It's just a wake-up call really as to what we’re talking about here.”
What the Met Office says about greenhouse gases
Some gases in the Earth's atmosphere trap heat and stop it escaping into space. These are called 'greenhouse gases' and they act like a warming blanket around the Earth. This is known as the 'greenhouse effect'.
Greenhouse gases come from both human and natural sources. Gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide naturally occur in the atmosphere - while others, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) - which are found in aerosol sprays - are only produced by human activity.
The greenhouse effect is critical to human survival. Without greenhouse gases, Earth would be about 30 degrees colder than it is today, so without their warming effect, we wouldn't be able to survive.
But, since the Industrial Revolution, we've been adding more and more greenhouse gases into the air, trapping even more heat. Instead of keeping Earth at a warm, stable temperature, the greenhouse effect is heating the planet at a much faster rate - and this is the main cause of climate change.
How humans cause climate change
The Met Office says we cause climate change by releasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the air. Today, there is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than there ever has been in at least the past 2m years - with a 40% rise during the 20th and 21st centuries.
Humans produce greenhouse gases in lots of different ways. These include:
Burning fossil fuels – such as oil, gas, and coal that contain carbon dioxide and have been in the ground for thousands of years. When we take these out of the land and burn them, we release the stored carbon dioxide into the air.
Deforestation – Forests remove and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Cutting them down means that carbon dioxide builds up quicker since there are no trees to absorb it.
Agriculture – Planting crops and rearing animals releases many different types of greenhouse gases into the air. For example, animals produce methane, which is 30 times more powerful than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas.
Cement – Producing cement is another contributor to climate change. It causes 2% of our entire carbon dioxide emissions.
What are the effects of climate change?
Climate change is already having visible effects on the world. The Earth is warming, rainfall patterns are changing, and sea levels are rising - and these changes can increase the risk of heatwaves, floods, droughts and fires.
Changing climate impacts crop growth and human health, while many people may need to leave their homes. It also places certain species at an increased risk of extinction.
The Met Office says: “The level of climate change we will see depends on how quickly we cut emissions of dangerous greenhouse gases. Even if we were to stop all emissions today, we would not prevent some changes. However, the sooner we cut emissions, the smaller the changes will be.”
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