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The Street
The Street
Business
Bret Kenwell

How Far Can Shopify Stock Rally? The Charts Hold a Clue.

Shopify (SHOP) on Thursday is giving the bulls something to cheer about, as its shares leap.

At today's high, Shopify stock was up 29% and it’s still sporting big gains, up 27% at last glance. The move comes after better-than-expected earnings results.

The company beat non-GAAP-earnings estimates but missed on GAAP expectations, while reporting stronger-than-expected 25% revenue growth. Shopify also borrowed a page from megacap tech, announcing more job cuts.

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Once a growth-stock darling, Shopify fell on hard times during the 2022 bear market. The shares collapsed, a peak-to-trough decline of about 86%.

That said, today’s rally is icing on the cake for the bulls who bought the big dip. 

The shares have now more than doubled (up 144%) from the 52-week low and post a year-to-date gain of 66%. Can it continue?

Trading Shopify Stock on Earnings

Daily and weekly chart of Shopify stock.

Chart courtesy of TrendSpider.com

Notice how Shopify stock has been grinding higher along uptrend support (blue line) and with each pullback — big or small — found this measure as support. 

The shares also continued to put in a series of higher highs and higher lows, a bullish technical development. 

With today’s gap-up open, Shopify shares began trading right near the year-to-date high at $54.66.

The rally sent Shopify up to almost $60 before it pulled back. The stock faded after traders took some profits at the 23.6% retracement (as measured from the 52-week low to the all-time high).

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The move we see today is well-defined, but how it moves from here is less clear.

On the upside, the bulls want to see a move up through the post-earnings high and the 23.6% retracement. A close above $60 could create a move up to the 21-month moving average currently near $65.

That’s also the 161.8% extension from the March low to the February high (or in other words, the previous range) and a reasonable upside target to shoot for should the stock clear $60. 

On the downside, bulls need to hold the post-earnings low and current breakout level around $54.50. If the stock cannot do that, it puts $50 or lower back in play, with the post-earnings gap-fill down near $48.

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