Jordan Love’s first season as the unquestioned starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers began as a roller coaster. He immediately rose to tall heights, throwing three touchdown passes in each of his first two games, then leading a comeback victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 3 to start the post-Aaron Rodgers era off with a bang.
Then, the accuracy issues that were acceptable in wins became concerning in a four-game losing streak that helped drop Green Bay to 3-6 and in position for a top 10 draft pick rather than a playoff run. After that, another climb. The accuracy issues and turnovers abated. The Packers rallied to the playoffs and beat the brakes off the Dallas Cowboys in Texas before bowing out to the eventual NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers a week later.
This has all set the bar high in Wisconsin, where the Packers have the fourth-best odds to win the conference crown behind the Niners, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions. So how confident should Green Bay be in a player who looks like the next link in a proud chain of franchise quarterbacks?
Yes, Jordan Love was *that* good to finish 2023
Let’s chart Love’s debut season as QB1. And since I’m basic, let’s just use passer rating to do so.
That’s a big start, an immediate cratering and then, whooooooo, a rocketship. From Week 11 through the Wild Card round, Love played nine games and had a rating of 108 or better in all but one (a loss to Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants. It was… weird). In those nine games he threw 21 touchdown passes against a single interception and was only sacked 11 times.
What changed? Love got better at finding his targets certainly — it helped that head coach Matt LaFleur did a great job creating openings — but more importantly he got significantly better at placing these throws. Love completed just 53 percent of his passes in games one through three, improved to 61 percent despite his struggles in the next six, then completed 70 percent of his passes over the final half of the 2023 season.
After Week 10, the only quarterback dealing at such an efficient level was Brock Purdy:
Purdy had an established lineup of All-Pros in his quiver, ready to cut through the air en route to bullseyes. Love did this with the league’s youngest receiving corps. Eight wideouts or tight ends caught passes from Love last season. Only two, Christian Watson and Bo Melton, were older than 23 when the season started.
That receiving corps stepped up, certainly, but Love was also out there making throws like this:
A BEAUTY!@jordan3love to @ChristianW2017 for the score!#GBvsDET | #GoPackGo
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/kS32GWMTDU
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 23, 2023
The one concern is that Love’s passes tend to float, making him a glorious “no, no, no, YES” follow on game day. While he has the arm strength to sling the ball into tight windows, some of his finest plays are gently lofted balls that fall into a bucket.
Romeo Doubs hauls it in!
📺: #KCvsGB on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/CQH1cx3gZS pic.twitter.com/LRKNUpuBTB— NFL (@NFL) December 4, 2023
This is terrifying, but endemic to the Love experience. He will make throws that look wildly interceptable as cameras pan downfield. Then they will land where he intended, moving the chains in a big way.
This doesn’t mean he’s infallible. He’s still filtering out the gunslinging instincts. Here’s a play, in the biggest game of his career, that had almost zero chance of succeeding and wound up sealing the Packers’ 2023 campaign:
INT NO. 2 FROM DRE GREENLAW!
📺: #GBvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/yDUx5ZutVa pic.twitter.com/m2bUwvM8TK— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024
Concerning, maybe, but this was a young quarterback in his second playoff start fighting with his back to the wall. For now, it can be treated as a lapse rather than a trend — even if it did look at least a little similar to Brett Favre ruining the Minnesota Vikings’ playoff run in 2010.
Love should, theoretically, have an easier lift in 2024 in front of a revamped defense
The Packers have been less than the sum of their parts when it comes to stopping opponents in recent years. Green Bay ranked 10th last season in points allowed but 13th in DVOA and 26th in defensive efficiency in terms of expected points added (EPA) allowed. For a team that’s spent seven first round picks on defensive players since 2019, this was not acceptable.
Thus, out went former defensive coordinator Joe Barry and in came Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley, making a statement on college football’s upward mobility and pay scale all in one move. Hafley’s defensive resume with the Eagles wasn’t great — just one season where BC’s points allowed cracked even the top 50 — but the Packers like the fit between his press-heavy coverage and its athletic cache of cornerbacks.
Indeed, Jaire Alexander can be trusted on an island and Eric Stokes has the recovery speed to thrive there if he can stay healthy after playing only a dozen games the last two seasons. Even if he can’t, Carrington Valentine succeeded in an expanded role and is capable of holding his own and Xavier McKinney’s arrival at safety brings an experienced, above-average help defender at the last line.
This will allow Hafley to lock in his other goal; to pin his guys’ ears back and attack the quarterback. Green Bay blitzed on 29.3 percent of its defensive snaps last season, which was a top 10 mark. It only generated pressure 24.3 percent of the time. Given Hafley’s past, it stands to reason we’ll see single-high coverage that trusts his defensive backs and gives young guys like Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness a little extra help when it comes to introducing chaos to the pocket.
.@RashanAGary with the SACK on third down!#NOvsGB | #GoPackGo
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/UBF44CJnd7
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 24, 2023
The question is how that will translate to the run defense. The Packers’ fatal flaw late in the Rodgers era was its inability to generate stops on the ground. The last time Green Bay even ranked in the top 20 when it came to yards allowed per carry was back in 2018. 2022 first round picks Quay Walker and, to a lesser extent, Devonte Wyatt have helped there, but questions linger. The team’s 2024 draft haul, which saw off-ball linebackers Edgerrin Cooper and Ty’Ron Hopper selected on Day 2, suggests the team is still working on solutions.
***
For the Packers to build from 2023, two things need to happen. Love needs to prove his vision and accuracy can stand up against defensive coordinators who’ve finally got a full season’s worth of game film to scrutinize. Hafley needs to prove his defensive scheme can turn a shaky unit held together by a few studs into something genuinely fearsome.
If Love and his defense play at the same level where they finished last season, they’ll… still be fine. It would be disappointing not to see more growth from a young roster, but a Wild Card bid in year two of the Love era would be a victory for all but the most spoiled of fan bases. The problem for the rest of the NFC is there’s still a ton of room to grow here.
We don’t yet know what the Green Bay Packers are truly capable of. But we’re about to find out.
