New head coach and offensive shot-caller Doug Pederson has completely transformed the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense. The last time the franchise has won back-to-back games of 20+ points or more was in the year 2000. The offense is currently sitting fifth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (opponent-adjusted efficiency) metric.
Which has actually been the best DVOA through three games, ever!
Pederson has managed to call a well-balanced offense with a 55% passing play percentage. Also putting him in seventh in EPA per play efficiency.
In the passing game, Pederson is effectively using play-action stemming from the run game paired with a quick passing offense to move the chains. According to Pro Football Focus, among quarterbacks who have had a minimum of 100 dropbacks, Trevor Lawrence is getting the ball out fourth quickest at an average of 2.4 seconds. Since Lawrence is getting the ball out quicker it also puts him at the top of the league when it comes to sack percentage, 1.77% of plays.
The offense is running like a well-oiled machine.
Let’s go to the film and diagnose how Pederson is using the run game to open the passing game, and vice-versa!
Multiple tight end personnel
Pederson has one of the most dynamic offenses with two-tight end personnel. When looking at the run game over the first three games with two tight ends or more, James Robinson is fourth in yards (79), second in yards after contact (62) and first in first downs (6).
When it comes to the passing game with two tight ends, Lawrence has the fifth most air yards and two touchdowns on only 10 drop backs.
In week two against the Indianapolis Colts, the Jaguars used 12 and 13 personnel to move the ball in critical moments.
Then in the third quarter, the Jaguars used a similar look to fake a run to the strong side, for a bootleg rolling Lawrence out with Christian Kirk to the right sideline.
In last week’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Jaguars continued using two and three tight end sets.
"Wow. That'd be excessive even for us." — the Wisconsin Badgers pic.twitter.com/sIPFsXuuvt
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 25, 2022
In that drive, the Jaguars did a great job mixing up looks to eventually exploit the Chargers defensive package. On each of the four plays run in that series, no formation was the same.
On the first play, the Jaguars’ offense came out in an empty spread, which forced the Chargers to use five defensive backs. The Jaguars slowly brought in an additional tight end and then ran a hurry up offense to exploit the mismatches.
This is how the Jaguars were able to win in the trenches to put them up 23-10 going into the fourth quarter. But Pederson using tight ends in a fast-paced offense shouldn’t be a surprise. From 2018-2020 the Philadelphia Eagles led the NFL in 12 personnel grouping frequency per Sharp Football Stats.
one of my favorite calls by doug pederson in the super bowl.
3rd and 1. 9 in the box.
fake outside zone with the two tight ends running a seam and a wheel route after selling their blocks *hard*. two tight ends running vertical creates a 2 on 1 situation for nick foles. 🎯 pic.twitter.com/tHGTvbnFtJ
— charles (#1 mahomes truther) mcdonald (@FourVerts) February 8, 2018
A staple of Pederson’s offense is using multiple tight ends, forcing the defense to step up and then when the moment strikes, hit them deep. We should expect the Jaguars offense to evolve as the weeks go on, by adding one or more fake screens to the outside, then a tight end running up the seam.
Pederson’s versatility is what makes his offense’s so difficult to defend.
Pederson's deception
The Jaguars came out in several different formations against the Chargers. This included a ‘Wildcat’ formation with James Robinson on the wing, Lawrence out wide, and receivers Christian Kirk and Jamal Agnew in the backfield with Travis Etienne taking the direct snap.
— Laurie Fitzpatrick (@LaurieFitzptrck) September 26, 2022
With Agnew and Kirk running into the flat in opposite directions, this spread the defense then, so Etienne cut it right up the gut, gaining nine yards on the play.
The Jaguars also ran several two-back sets, among the most effective was with tight end Engram and running back Robinson in the backfield.
They also used a two-back set with Robinson and wide receiver Agnew. This was used with a run-pass-option to isolate a receiver on the outside.
mesmerized by how quickly Trevor Lawrence can give himself the laces and throw this RPO pic.twitter.com/OLpLLE9BGC
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 26, 2022
As previously mentioned, Lawrence’s throwing time is what sticks out most. Sitting only behind Tom Brady in week 3 total time to throw per Next Gen Stats.
Offensive efficiency
Now when we look at the Lawrence’s progression from last year, efficiency sticks out. As we notice in the chart below, through the first three weeks of the season, his company is Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.
Early on in his career, it seemed like Lawrence was most effective in the play action bootleg. This year, the Jaguars call play action on only 25% of drop backs and Lawrence has four touchdowns without it.
When looking at early passing downs, the Jaguars are at the top of the league in efficiency.
According to Sports Info Solutions, James Robinson is third in total yards when rushing on third and fourth down.
So, Pederson is using a quick high percentage passing to move the ball on early downs and keeping possession by running for the short yardage conversions.
This allows them to also manage the clock. According to Team Rankings, the Jaguars are second in the league in time of possession. Pair that with the defense leading the league in turnovers, and it’s no wonder the Jaguars are climbing the power rankings.
We should expect this offense to continue this trend as the season continues. It’s going to be interesting when they face off against some of the tougher defenses in the next upcoming weeks, and we will see how Pederson adjusts.
But we can no longer deny that the Jaguars are starting to earn their respect around the league.
