When the Las Vegas Raiders took on the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, it was probably expected that 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, the rookie Mr. Irrelevant who had led the NFL in passer rating (110.0) since he became the team’s starter in Week 13, would deal with the Raiders’ pass defense, which ranked dead last in DVOA. And that happened. In San Francisco’s 37-34 overtime win, Purdy completed 22 of 35 passes for 284 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 95.4. As has been the case throughout his improbable recent journey, Purdy did all he could to win.
What we did NOT expect in this game was for new Raiders starter Jarrett Stidham, the 2019 fourth-round pick of the New England Patriots, thrust into his first NFL start against the NFL’s best defense, to do as much. Stidham had completed 24 of 48 passes for 270 yards, two touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 46.4 in two seasons with the Patriots.
Former New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels clearly saw something in Stidham, because soon after McDaniels became the Raiders’ head coach, Las Vegas traded a 2023 sixth-round pick to the Patriots for Stidham and a 2023 seventh-round pick. The only action Stidham had seen in the 2022 regular season before Sunday’s game was in Week 8 mop-up duty against the New Orleans Saints in a 24-0 loss. But with McDaniels’ decision to bench Derek Carr — a move that likely presages the end of Carr’s time with the franchise — it was now up to Stidham, who completed eight of 13 passes for 72 yards against the Saints, to create necessary explosive plays against a defense that had been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks all season long.
This can’t be overstated. McDaniels was throwing Stidham into the teeth of a defense that was ranked first in Defensive DVOA, first in Weighted Defensive DVOA, and fifth in Pass Defense DVOA, The 49ers had allowed just 16 passing touchdowns to 15 interceptions. In today’s NFL, if your defense is about even in those two numbers, your defense is amazing. And the 49ers’ defense has been that way all season long.
So, how did Stidham rock that defense with 23 completions on 34 attempts for 365 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 108.1, against a defense that had allowed a season-long passer rating of 82.3, third-best in the league behind the Denver Broncos and the New York Jets?
And to get granular about it, how is it that Stidham was responsible for eight explosive passing plays in this game, when he was 0-for-2 against the Saints in throws of 20 or more air yards? Against such throws this season, the 49ers had allowed 16 completions on 38 attempts for 550 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 93.6 (about middle of the pack). This wasn’t the Raiders taking advantage of a heretofore unknown weakness in DeMeco Ryans’ defense — this was the Raiders dictating to that defense in ways no other team has this season.
Interesting questions, so let’s dive under the hood and see how it came to be.
Play-action, and the threat of Josh Jacobs.
It’s an old canard that you need a great running game to establish play-action. Not true, and that’s been proven over and over. But if you do have a dominant running back for whom defenses have to plan, it certainly helps. The Raiders have such a back in Josh Jacobs, who gained 69 yards and scored a touchdown on 17 carries. Not his best game, but Jacobs was as valuable in the threat of his talent as he was with the reality of it on the field.
Four of Stidham’s eight explosive throws came with play-action, and you could see how San Francisco’s defense was affected by it — especially linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, the NFL’s best duo at the position.
This 24-yard touchdown pass to tight end Darren Waller with 11:45 left in the first quarter was the most obvious example. When Stidham faked to Jacobs, Warner, Greenlaw, cornerback Deommodore Lenoir, and safety Talanoa Hufanga all cheated up. Hufanga’s delay in breaking to Waller’s sail route was the difference that made the play happen easily for Stidham. As soon as Waller worked his route outside, Hufanga was out of luck.
Stidham got another big play to a tight end — this time it was Foster Moreau — with 6:44 left in the fourth quarter and a similar look. As before, the fake to Jacobs caused the two linebackers (Warner and Oren Burks) as well as Lenoir, to cheat up. Moreau did a great job of selling his delayed release by staying in to block Nick Bosa (always a good idea), so when he leaked out, Lenoir was caught very much by surprise.
By the way, great bit of scouting by the Raiders’ staff here, and this is something the 49ers need to tamp down. Before this game, they allowed 70 play-action completions on 102 attempts for 749 yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 100.5. It’s a rare vulnerability Stidham and McDaniels were able to exploit.
Motion to indicate, and motion to disrupt.
Six of Stidham’s explosive throws were aided by pre-snap motion, and McDaniels and his staff did a really nice job of giving Stidham both motion to indicate, and motion to disrupt. Motion to indicate means that you’re sending people across the formation pre-snap to get an indicator of coverage. Motion to disrupt means that you’re moving a player pre-snap to take advantage of what you see as a favorable matchup.
On this 24-yard pass to Waller with 8:20 left in the first half, the motion by tight end Jesper Horsted did a couple pf things to San Francisco’s defense. The 49ers were in base personnel against the Raiders’ 13 personnel (one back, three tight ends, one receiver), and you see all three linebackers — Warner, Greenlaw, and Azeez Al-Shaair — check over from left to right. Hufanga also checked over, and he took Moreau once the ball was in play. It was Lenoir’s job to take Waller up the numbers, and that didn’t really happen.
Stidham’s 45-yard pass to Davante Adams with 1:53 left in the fourth quarter started with Adams working from the left slot to right outside, and the 49ers staying in Cover-3. This put Lenoir on Adams one-on-one outside with no help, and that’s not a place you want to be unless you’re a shutdown guy. Lenoir is a good player, but…
The 49ers had been better against motion than against play-action this season — they’d given up 110 completions on 176 attempts for 1,099 yards, nine touchdowns, six interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 83.0, which is seventh-best in the NFL. This was less about a defensive vulnerability, and more about McDaniels understanding how you can set a defense on its heels with pre-snap movement.
When being a product of the system actually pays off.
Not that Stidham was perfect in this game — the interception he threw with 7:53 left in overtime set up Robbie Gould’s 56-yard game-winning field goal. Here, Stidham was getting too cute under serious pressure from Bosa, trying to fit a deep cross-body throw to Adams. Tashaun Gipson, a savvy veteran, probably thought, “Pick” the moment the ball left Stidham’s hand.
“For them to keep coming back and have to go into overtime like that, it was so awesome to see [Gipson] get that pick and take it down,” 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said. “I was very glad that we didn’t have to go to another drive.”
Overall, this was a fascinating look at how one coaching staff can beat another, even with an undermanned offense at the game’s most important position, and even if the final score doesn’t reflect it. McDaniels and his staff did a brilliant job of scheming things up for Stidham, and the NFL’s best defense struggled to respond for the most part.
“I thought Jarrett put in a great week of work,” McDaniels said following the loss. “He knows what to do, he’s been in our system a long time and has that grasp of it. Understands what to do. I thought he executed a lot of things the right way today. Gave our guys a chance to make some plays down the field.
“Leading our team, his energy, his communication. I thought we had good rhythm,” added the head coach. “Obviously, you can tell, the guys played well for him and played hard for him, as they should. It didn’t surprise me that he was ready to go and play the way that he played.”
There are all kinds of unremarkable quarterbacks who extend their careers with former coaches in new places, based on the idea that “He understands the system.” Most times, it doesn’t work as anybody would have liked. This was a rare exception.
Though the ultimate result was a close loss, and nobody’s saying that Stidham is the Raiders’ quarterback of the future, he certainly proved the worth of prior experience in ways most people in his position simply can’t.
Also, the 49ers have some work to do with a few defensive concepts, and it’s good to get that out of the way before the playoffs begin. This was the ideal result for San Francisco’s coaches — they got the win, and the teach tape to keep everybody on point as the regular season comes to a close.
