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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
National
Gabriela Sá Pessoa

How close is the Amazon to a 'tipping point?' Brazil’s election could help shape its future

Brazil Election Amazon Tipping Point - (Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

While Brazil's presidential candidates have not made policy of the Amazon a major campaign topic, climate scientists and environmentalists say the winner of Sunday's race could determine whether, and how soon, the world's largest rainforest could reach a “tipping point.”

The key threshold, heavily debated among scientists, in simple terms would be when the dense, humid, moisture-generating forest shifts to a drier ecosystem. That would come with irreversible consequences for biodiversity and the climate, as the forest absorbs massive amounts of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that drives global temperature to rise. Brazil contains about 60% of the Amazon, which is spread across several countries in South America.

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