The latest Newspoll would suggest the Coalition is in dire straits, with Labor leading 56-44 on a two-party preferred vote.
Those numbers make another victory for the Coalition seem unlikely, especially this close to an election. But there’s a general distrust in polling since Donald Trump and Brexit proved them wrong and, closer to home, the 2019 election result.
So just how bad is this pre-election poll compared with others? Could the Morrison government go on to win anyway?
Keating 1993 (election held March 13)
In a precursor to 2019, this election was one where the pollsters simply got it wrong. Keating was polling at 46 points two-party preferred in late February, and by election eve was still trailing the Coalition at 50.5 points. It was always supposed to be close, but no one expected Keating would pick up new seats. Similarly to 2019, Liberal leader John Hewson’s heavy policy agenda — including a proposal to introduce GST (plus the birthday cake thing) — are often blamed for the unexpected support for an incumbent.
Howard 2001 (election held November 10)
In early 2001, Labor was holding strong on two-party preferred, and at its lowest point in March, the Coalition polled at 43 points. The Tampa affair (mostly credited with winning the election and birthing the “tough on borders” election ploy) provided a two-point boost. But it was really 9/11 that secured the victory, with the shock providing a five-point boost in the aftermath of the attacks, and had the Coalition lead the two-party preferred in for the first time that year, two months out from the election. The polls narrowed before polling day, but the two boosts proved enough to deliver a turnaround victory for the Howard government.
Howard 2004 (election held October 9)
Howard was again able to turn polls in his favour in the lead-up to the election after recording two consecutive low numbers — 45 points in March and 46 in August. The Coalition eventually found the support it needed, and the polls went with it again — just in time to take out the election in October.
Morrison 2019 (election held May 18)
In a result reflective of yesterday’s poll, Morrison recorded a two-party preferred result of 44 after the Lib spill in August/September 2018. According to polling, the two-party preferred vote narrowed but remained in Labor’s favour — but obviously this is not how the election panned out. 2019 repeated the surprise results of 1993 where the polls simply didn’t see the result coming, and battleground seats ended up delivering the election.
Morrison 2022 (election TBA)
The latest results suggest Scott Morrison has another uphill battle ahead, but the relevance of two-party preferred polling has been questioned. The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have recently reentered the polling space, and have done away with recording two-party preferred results, claiming the “horse race” it creates distorts the actual situation. Another misread result may just do away with two-party preferred altogether.
Do you have any faith in the polls? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name if you would like to be considered for publication in Crikey’s Your Say column. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
