Sergio Perez admitted at his home Mexican race that his 2024 Formula 1 season had been "terrible" - and having scored just two points in the three rounds since, little has changed.
Speculation about Perez's future in the team has persisted throughout the year. After beginning the season with an adequate run of form in supporting Max Verstappen, his results had regressed dramatically after the Miami round at the start of May. He has scored just 49 points in the races since.
In contrast to past attitudes from the team, Red Bull has been looking for any excuse it can to keep the Mexican; his a popular presence in the team, and his place there is augmented by support from Mexican businesses, most notably including the Slim family.
Furthermore, Perez has proven he can perform at Red Bull, but those results have dried up considerably over the past seven months. He hasn't graced the podium since April, hasn't won a race since April 2023, and has suffered six Q1 eliminations this season.
But one of the bigger indicators of his drop-off this season is in his average gap to Verstappen at the chequered flag.
In each of his four seasons, Perez has been significantly behind Verstappen at the end of a race. We have calculated the average gap per season, removing anomalies and normalising any gaps above 60 seconds (when not considered anomalous) to just 60 seconds to account for any time loss in being lapped, or other issues presented when behind.
In 2021, Perez's first year at Red Bull, he maintained an average finishing gap to Verstappen of 29.983s. Frequently separated from his team-mate by the two Mercedes cars and usually either a Ferrari or Lando Norris, Perez had a low-key first year at the team.
A replacement for Alex Albon, Perez did not demonstrate a particularly huge step up in performance, but he at least offered Verstappen more consistent support.
This continued into 2022, where Perez's 11.997s average gap to Verstappen was at its lowest. The nature of the RB18 played into his hands at the start of the season, although the shift forward from a neutral handling balance with the car's development started to favour Verstappen more.
A sub-12s average gap is comparable to some of the more feted Number One/Number Two driver combinations, like Michael Schumacher and Rubens Barrichello over 2000-2004 (Schumacher 10.754s ahead on average) or Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas between 2017-2021 (Hamilton ahead by 11.025s).
The opening rounds of the next season continued at that pace, but Perez's colossal drop in form during the middle portion of the season led to an ultimate figure of 20.157s. It was only the consistent competitiveness of the RB19 versus the greater fluctuations of the other cars that helped him ultimately achieve second in the drivers' championship.
After Las Vegas, Perez's average gap to Verstappen at the flag this year is 34.890s - which is colossal. Through too many poor qualifying results and a general lack of pace post-Miami, this has left Perez languishing in the lower reaches of the points and the midfield.
Altogether, this brings Perez's average across the four seasons as Verstappen's team-mate to 24.257s between them. This is the largest split between champion and team-mate since 1995, although that is a season admittedly difficult to calculate due to the greater attrition in races and wild gaps in the contests both Schumacher and Johnny Herbert completed.
Nonetheless, this is much greater than the usual gaps between Fernando Alonso and Giancarlo Fisichella in 2005-06 (19.326s). This is a conclusion we came to with our calculations last year, but at the end of 2023 the overall gap between Verstappen and Perez was at 19.931s.
Perez has finished races over 14s further behind Verstappen in 2024 compared to last season. And one would be surprised if this was to improve if he retains his seat next year, given that the RB21 is likely to be an evolution of its predecessor.
