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The Walrus
The Walrus
Politics
Carmine Starnino

How an Astrophysicist Became the Most Accurate Political Forecaster in Canada

Courtesy of Philippe J. Fournier / Unsplash / Brian Morgan

By day, Philippe J. Fournier teaches physics and astronomy at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. His evenings and weekends, however, are devoted to a very different kind of expertise—election modelling.

Fournier’s reputation is built on his creation of 338Canada, a platform that has become a go-to resource for political junkies. By aggregating polling data, demographic trends, and electoral history, Fournier creates sophisticated projections that routinely outperform traditional punditry. Since launching in 2016, his model has called results correctly in over 1,600 electoral districts, achieving an astonishing 90 percent accuracy rate.

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