WASHINGTON _ Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has already dipped a toe into the 2020 Democratic contest. If the multibillionaire decides to jump all the way in the race, he could make a big splash in California's primary.
The main reason: money. Forbes estimates Bloomberg's net worth, earned from his eponymous financial media conglomerate, at more than $52 billion. And the one-time Republican turned anti-Trump activist reportedly sees a path to the Democratic nomination through Super Tuesday, focusing on delegate-rich states like California, where his personal wealth could make him a factor.
Bloomberg "doesn't have to worry about coming into Iowa, he doesn't have to worry about going to New Hampshire or Nevada or South Carolina," Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders predicted during a recent rally in Iowa. "He's just going to spend, I suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars in media in California because he's a billionaire," a tactic Sanders said reflected "the corruption" of America's current political system.
Bucking long-held traditions within the Democratic primary system is an audacious gamble, and one most strategists McClatchy spoke with were skeptical would succeed. But given the fragmented nature of the primary thus far, it could certainly affect the dynamics of the race.
Bloomberg aides did not respond to multiple requests for comment about his 2020 plans. Like former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, who announced a bid for president on Thursday, Bloomberg decided earlier this year to pass on a race, before reconsidering.
He has already filed to run for president in Arkansas and Alabama. But unlike Patrick, who filed the paperwork for New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation presidential primary, Bloomberg does not intend to appear on the ballot there, or the other so-called "early voting" states, should he officially run.
Bloomberg would start at a serious disadvantage in California, where the deadline to appear on the primary ballot is Nov. 26. Sanders' 2020 presidential campaign has invested heavily in the state, recently announcing it now has 40 paid staff on the ground. Other candidates, including home state Sen. Kamala Harris, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, have established operations in the state.
But Bloomberg's personal wealth could allow to him to catch up more quickly than the average candidate in California, which represents more than 20% of the delegates needed to win the nomination, and other Super Tuesday states.
"If Bloomberg got out in California with $100 million or $50 million in direct advertising to voters, bypassing the media and debates, he could define himself to voters in a way that might be very persuasive," said California elections analyst Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc.
The only Democratic candidate who could come close to that level of spending is Tom Steyer, himself a billionaire philanthropist and former hedge fund manager from San Francisco. Steyer spent nearly $50 million during his first three months in the race, but has only made a small dent in the polls.
He and the rest of the massive Democratic field are counting on the national media buzz and political cachet of a top finish in Iowa and the other states that vote in February to propel them to victory in the states voting in March, when far more delegates are up for grabs.
The early-state focus has left a vacuum on the campaign trail in California, where candidates have spent lots of time fundraising but relatively little time wooing rank-and-file voters. This weekend is an exception _ the California Democratic Party's nominating convention in Long Beach is luring more than half a dozen candidates to the state, with many planning public rallies and meet-and-greets (Bloomberg is not slated to attend the convention).
California, which votes March 3, isn't the only big state that has failed to draw much attention from Democratic candidates thus far. Few have held public events in Florida, despite the fact that early voting there begins Feb. 6., ahead of the March 17 primary.
Strategists have mixed opinions about how much Bloomberg's potential to spend big in California and other populous Super Tuesday states like Texas, North Carolina, Virginia and Massachusetts could counteract the momentum that the winning candidates will gain in Iowa and, to a lesser extent, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
Californians "are consuming information about the candidates as if it's a national campaign," noted Rose Kapolczynski, a Democratic consultant based in Los Angeles. "You've noticed how, as Warren has risen in key early states, she's rising in California. Well, she's not advertising in California, she has no ground game to speak of in California," Kapolczynski pointed out. "It is the impact of the national media attention that she's getting and the national narrative around the race."
Others doubted Bloomberg's profile _ including deep ties to Wall Street _ would appeal to many California voters, no matter how much he spends.
"To me, there's no natural base for him here," said Darry Sragow, a longtime Democratic strategist who has served as campaign manager for five statewide races. "California Democrats feel their choices are being met by the existing field."
But Sacramento-based Democratic consultant Steve Maviglio suggested that Bloomberg's potential political issues with California's liberal Democratic base might not be so problematic in the 2020 election cycle.
"Democrats are so desperate for someone to win and beat Trump, I think they're willing to put traditional campaigns aside if somebody could prove to us they could beat Trump," Maviglio said.
And Mitchell of Political Data Inc. said that while a candidate's success in the early states "gets you earned media and visibility ... Bloomberg can just buy it on the market."
If nothing else, Bloomberg's focus on California could dent other Democrats' hopes there, particularly those vying for more centrist voters. "Bloomberg could hurt those other candidates who are making an appeal to moderation and electability," said Kapolczynski, such as Buttigieg and former Vice President Joe Biden.
"He's not going to win the Democratic activist vote," said Maviglio. "He should go for winning people that are going to vote in this primary that don't like the far left."
