Kirk Cousins speculation is back in the 49ers’ orbit. Because of course it is. Kyle Shanahan making Cousins the Plan A for his first venture into finding a franchise quarterback is bound to follow him for as long as either he or Cousins are employed by an NFL franchise.
Until now there hasn’t been much opportunity for the two sides to reconnect. The 49ers have been mired in their own turmoil at QB while Cousins has been locked into cushy, fully-guaranteed deals with the Vikings. Recent news that Cousins plans to hit free agency this offseason, combined with San Francisco’s seemingly perpetual question mark under center has thrust us all back into the rumor mill where Shanahan continues pursuing of his holy-ish grail.
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio is of the mind that next offseason will feature a showdown between Shanahan and Rams head coach Sean McVay for Cousins’ services. Florio didn’t have hard reporting here, but the speculation makes sense. It is just (rightly) connecting dots between Cousins and his two former offensive coordinators in Washington who both have an air of instability at the game’s most important position.
For the 49ers the question isn’t so much whether Shanahan would be interested in Cousins. The question is how San Francisco would get to a place where they’re looking for a QB next offseason. There are a handful of dominoes that would need to fall before the team, which has been constructed around having a relatively cheap quarterback room, invests big money at the position.
Let’s take a look at what would need to happen to get San Francisco to overhaul its team-building strategy for a 35-year-old QB who is 1-3 in playoff games:
Injuries derail another season
The 49ers have had a whale of a time keeping quarterbacks healthy during Shanahan’s tenure has head coach. They’ve used three or more QBs in four of his six seasons.
If 2023 looks like 2022 where Brock Purdy, Trey Lance and Sam Darnold all deal with injury problems and it keeps the 49ers from getting over the hump in the NFC, it’s easy to see Shanahan pulling the plug on his two young signal callers and aiming for the services of a veteran who’s been the picture of on-field health in his career.
Cousins since 2015 has missed only two games, and one of those was the final week of the 2019 season where the Vikings had seeding wrapped and gave the QB a week off.
Brock Purdy regresses
Purdy regressing would put the 49ers in a tough spot. They’re betting big on him picking up where he left off in his rookie year where he averaged 8.1 yards per attempt and posted a 107.3 quarterback rating while going undefeated when healthy.
If he struggles in Year 2 either because of his injury or because of a major regression in his off-the-charts statistical production, the 49ers could find themselves in a place where they no longer believe in Purdy as a franchise QB. That leaves them with Lance, who will be entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, as the only other QB on the roster going into 2024.
In this scenario Shanahan may not be a better path to contention than going after a veteran QB he believes he can win with.
Trey Lance's tough spot
Perhaps Lance throws a wrench into all of this. Maybe he gets an opportunity to play, lights it up, and puts the 49ers back on the track they hoped to get on when they selected Lance No. 3 overall in the 2021 draft. That is on the table.
However, if he doesn’t play in 2023 or if he does and struggles, it puts the 49ers in a tricky spot. He’ll be entering the final year of his rookie contract with very little to show for his first three years. San Francisco doesn’t appear particularly inclined to let him play and work through any adversity he’ll encounter as a full-time starter. As their core ages and the championship window gets smaller, so do Lance’s chances to lead the team.
If he doesn’t play and make a huge splash in 2023, the chances his presence on the roster would stop Shanahan from seeking Cousins in free agency are at, or very close to, zero.
Sam Darnold doesn't play like an MVP
If Darnold gets an opportunity to play in 2023 and plays exceptionally well, a reunion would have to be on the table. For him to overtake Cousins in Shanahan’s mind though he’ll have to play by far the best football of his career, limit mistakes and elevate the offense.
A financial change
There’s a financial aspect at play here that can’t be ignored. Cousins has ostensibly been playing on fully-guaranteed deals since 2016, and he won’t come cheap in free agency. That’s especially true if there’s a bidding war for his services. His average annual value in 2018 was $28 million when he signed a three-year deal with Minnesota. That AAV climbed to $33 million with an extension in 2020, and to $35 million with an extension before last year.
San Francisco is $13 million over the projected 2024 salary cap according to Over the Cap. That doesn’t include Nick Bosa’s massive extension that’ll come down later this offseason. They’ll have to do some gymnastics to get under the cap, and fitting a QB making in the ballpark of $30 million wouldn’t be easy.
The 49ers would have to make a decision to part ways with some key players, and determine that adding Cousins would without those pieces would ultimately give them a better chance to win the Super Bowl.
