In a significant shift in policy, the Biden administration has redesignated the Houthis in Yemen as a global terrorist entity. This measure aims to curb the Iran-backed rebels' ability to carry out further attacks in the Red Sea region. The decision comes after a coalition led by the United States recently launched strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
The redesignation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization has important implications for security in the Red Sea. Over the past few weeks, the Houthis have engaged in acts of aggression, such as firing missiles at ships, seizing vessels, and taking hostages. These actions warrant their classification as a terrorist group. However, it is important to note that the practical impact of placing them on the terrorist list may be limited.
While being designated as a terrorist entity could result in actions to crack down on countries or financial institutions involved in supporting the Houthis, it is unlikely to have a significant effect on the group itself. The Houthis do not rely on international banking systems, and their operations are not dependent on access to funds stored in Western banks.
Furthermore, evidence from previous sanctions on countries like Russia suggests that such measures do not necessarily hinder their ability to wage wars or pursue their objectives. Sanctions alone may not be sufficient to alter the behavior or capabilities of a group like the Houthis.
It is essential to recognize that beyond the U.S.-led coalition engaging with the Houthis, Iran, their main sponsor, has also been more directly involved in the region, not only in Yemen but also in countries like Iraq and Pakistan. The recent aggressive actions by Iran reflect both internal power struggles and external factors.
Internally, Iran is experiencing a power struggle over the succession of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who is 84 years old and in fragile health. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which spearheads Iran's missile, nuclear, and drone programs, is asserting its influence during this period of transition.
Externally, Iran's increased assertiveness can be seen as a warning to potential adversaries, including the United States, that although they do not possess nuclear weapons yet, they have acquired a more sophisticated arsenal compared to a few years ago. Recent drone sales to Ukraine have demonstrated the effectiveness of Iranian weaponry, and there are reports of ongoing missile negotiations with Russia.
The current situation in the region also raises questions about the United States' options to contain Iran. A secret agreement that had been brokered by a top Biden administration official with Iran and its proxies, aimed at maintaining relative calm in exchange for the outline of a new nuclear agreement, appears to have fallen apart. This failure leaves the United States with fewer diplomatic options to address Iran's actions.
While Iran has not directly targeted Americans or American assets, they appear satisfied with having their proxies, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, carry out attacks. With a revived nuclear deal increasingly unlikely due to the expiration of key provisions in the original agreement, the Iranians may believe that the United States is preoccupied with other regional challenges and will not forcefully push back against their recent aggression.
However, the risk of miscalculation remains, as Iran may overstep its boundaries, potentially leading to a more direct confrontation with the United States or its allies. The evolving dynamics in the Middle East necessitate continued monitoring and strategic decision-making to maintain stability and prevent further escalation.
