As Ireland votes in crucial elections this Friday, the focus on housing, immigration and political accountability has run deep throughout campaigning. Voter discontent has set the stage for a potential shift in power among the country's long dominant parties.
This has been a record-breaking election year around the world, with voters deeming that something in their respective countries is broken and punishing incumbents.
That sentiment has resonated throughout Ireland's election campaign, where rival centre-right parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil took turns running the country for a century before forming a coalition administration in 2020.
If some voters are turning against them, the anti-politician mood is also hitting left-of-centre opposition party Sinn Féin, which not long ago appeared destined for power.
With 174 seats to be filled in the Dáil, Ireland's lower house of parliament, polls suggest voters’ support is split into five roughly even chunks – for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, several smaller parties and an assortment of independents.
Housing crisis
The most pressing issue is the cost and lack of housing. Apartments and houses are expensive – prices rose by 10 percent in the year to August – and there are not enough homes to go around.
A housing commission set up by the government says Ireland has a “housing deficit” of up to 256,000 homes.
Rents have soared, and many young workers can’t afford a place of their own, with the cost of living forcing people in their 20s to emigrate, although there are plenty of jobs in Ireland.
“All the parties have plans to solve the housing crisis, and although they differ, this means that Sinn Féin is no longer in a position to claim this issue, as it did in 2020," Lisa Keenan, professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin, told RFI.
Although the cost of living and the housing crises have dominated this campaign, none of the main parties – including Sinn Féin – have managed to stand out.
Immigration woes
Immigration has risen up the political agenda as new arrivals have transformed a country long defined by people leaving rather than arriving.
About 20 percent of Ireland’s population was born outside Ireland, and 120,000 foreigners moved to Ireland in the year to April – the biggest number since 2007.
Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians and thousands of people fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa.
"We can also see that immigration has become an issue ... and Sinn Féin does not have a particularly restrictive immigration policy. As a result, some of its supporters who are more radical on this topic are dissatisfied," Keenan says.
As a country of just 5.4 million people, Ireland has struggled to house all the asylum-seekers, leading to tent camps and makeshift accommodation centres that have attracted tension and protests.
A stabbing attack on children outside a Dublin school a year ago, in which an Algerian man has been charged, sparked the worst rioting Ireland had seen in decades.
Unlike many European countries, Ireland does not have a significant far-right party, but anti-immigrant independent candidates are hoping for election in several districts.
Apple tax windfall
The main political parties are trying to defuse the discontent, touting plans to get a grip on immigration and build many more houses.
Ireland’s government has one advantage over many others: money, in part from over €13 billion in back taxes that the European Union ordered Apple to pay Ireland.
The government initially opposed that payment, because low taxes are one of the key sweeteners Ireland has traditionally used to attract investment from major foreign companies.
While the threat posed by tariff-loving president-elect Donald Trump to Ireland’s economic model has not come up much on the campaign trail, Prime Minister Simon Harris has said his Fine Gael party “is setting aside a very significant amount into future funds to protect our country from any economic shock”.
Harris is hoping to stay on as prime minister – or taoiseach – but his campaign has been weakened by gaffes.
His brusque treatment of a care worker for the disabled he met last week became the kind of viral political moment that politicians dread.
No coalition with Sinn Féin
Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil – led by Deputy Prime Minister Micheál Martin – has the edge in most polls, and the seasoned politician has been relaxed on the campaign trail.
Encountering handshakes and selfie requests in the shops in Dublin, he acknowledged that “there is a need for new policies”, but not new governing parties.
Martin maintains the coalition government has "weathered some very significant shocks to the economy,” including the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
"But we managed to bring the Irish economy back ... Why go back to the starting point again?” he added.
Sinn Féin – which aims to reunite the Republic of Ireland and UK-administered territory of Northern Ireland – topped the popular vote at the last election in in 2020, but was shut out of government because neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael would work with it, citing its leftist policies and historic links to the Irish Republican Army.
In recent months its poll ratings have plunged, due in part to a disconnect with working-class voters over immigration.
Party officials say Sinn Féin has gained momentum during the three-week election campaign, but its path to power remains limited by a lack of coalition partners.
Analysts say the most likely election outcome is another Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coalition.
