The California primaries were supposed to be the first major triumph of younger Democrats' campaign to oust aging House incumbents. That's not how it's shaking out.
Why it matters: The old guard is proving they still have some fight, defying a "generational change" year for the party grassroots.
- Rep. Brad Sherman's (D-Calif.) campaign crowed that the results in his district were a "direct repudiation of Sherman's opponents' claims that voters ... value 'generational change' over experience and results."
- "We always know that primarying incumbents is really, really hard," said Amanda Litman, founder of Run for Something. "The incumbents are almost always going to win."
Driving the news: Sherman, 71, and Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.), 75, will both advance to the general election in November after comfortable top-two finishes in Tuesday night's jungle primaries, according to the AP.
- Their Democratic primary challengers didn't fare nearly as well: Sherman rival Jake Levine is projected to finish a distant third, meaning he won't make it to November.
- Thompson's Democratic challenger Eric Jones is in a close fight for second with Republican Ray Riehle, trailing by roughly three percentage points with half the votes counted.
- Both districts are solidly blue, meaning Sherman and Thompson are virtually guaranteed reelection if Republicans advance to the general election.
Zoom in: Rep. Doris Matsui's (D-Calif.) fate is more uncertain. The 81-year-old stood at just under 31% of the vote with a little less than half of the vote tallied as of Wednesday morning, according to the AP.
- Her progressive challenger Mai Vang was at 25%, with Republican Zachariah Wooden — a college undergraduate whose candidacy was boosted by Matsui's allies — close behind at 24%.
- Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.), a perennial target of the left, finished ahead in his primary but may be forced to face progressive challenger Angela Gonzales-Torres in November.
Between the lines: While Levine and Jones centered their pitches to voters around generational change, Vang and Gonzales-Torres ran more as progressive alternatives to their establishment-backed incumbents.
- Age wasn't a huge a factor in the race between Gomez, 51, and Gonzales-Torres, 31.
- "It's important that change is presented as both generational and policy-wise," said Litman. "And if you can't paint that picture for how things will be different, you run into some problems."
Zoom out: Elsewhere in the state and across the country, progressives notched some major victories.
- Adam Hamawy , a vocally pro-Palestinian former combat surgeon best known for saving Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) in Iraq , won the primary to replace retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.).
- Smoke jumper Sam Forstag, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, is ahead in the Democratic primary in Montana's 1st district.
- Progressive Randy Villegas led Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-backed Jasmeet Bains by four points as of Wednesday morning in the fight to take on Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.).
The bottom line: The generational change faction isn't losing hope of ousting older incumbents just yet.
- Said Litman: "The fact that these races are happening at all is indicative of how little control the establishment has to box people out or clear the field."
