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HARRISON MILLER

Marriott Beats Estimates, Hyatt Mixed In Big Week For Travel Earnings; Booking Holding Soars, Airbnb Beats

With the travel industry recovery in full swing, Marriott International beat earnings early Tuesday and Hyatt Hotels posted mixed results early Thursday. Marriott stock is trading at record highs while Hyatt stock slid below a buy zone after results.

Online booking firms Airbnb, Expedia Group and Booking Holdings reported on Thursday.

Hilton beat Q2 forecasts last week and lifted its full-year outlook, noting record prices and strong rebounding travel demand. Hilton earnings increased 26% to $1.63 per share while revenue grew 19% to $2.66 billion.

HLT stock is trading in a buy zone for a cup-with-handle base after reclaiming the 152.89 buy point on July 28.

Separately, Norwegian Cruise Line reported strong earnings early Tuesday, but shares fell on guidance.

Marriott Earnings

Marriott posted a 25% jump in adjusted earnings to $2.26 per share while revenue surged 13.8% to $6.08 billion.

Analysts expected Marriott earnings to climb 21% to $2.17 per share on 11.9% revenue growth to hit $5.97 billion.

The company added 33,100 rooms globally during the quarter. Comparable systemwide revenue per available room (RevPAR) increased 13.5% from last year. RevPAR rose 6% in the U.S. and Canada, but leapt 39.1% in Marriott's international markets.

Marriott guided Q3 adjusted earnings between $2 and $2.09 per share on $1.1 billion to $1.21 billion in gross fee revenues. Worldwide RevPAR is expected to increase 6% to 8% from Q3 2022. FactSet analysts forecast Q3 earnings of $2.03 per share with $1.18 billion in fee revenue.

Marriott sees fiscal 2023 earnings between $8.36 and $8.65 per share, which would represent up to 30% growth from 2022. The hotel chain anticipates gross fee revenues between $4.73 billion and $4.82 billion, which is in-line with FactSet estimates. Marriott expects to return $4.1 billion to $4.5 billion in capital to shareholders.

Bethesda, Md.-based Marriott averaged 79% earnings growth with an average 43% revenue gain the past four quarters leading up to Q2 results.

Marriott Stock

MAR shares inched 1% higher Friday after hitting a new record of 206.19 in early trade Wednesday, surpassing the record high of 204.74 from Tuesday following results. Marriott stock is trading above the buy zone for a flat base after surpassing the 183.27 buy point on June 13. Shares rallied 36% so far this year, decisively clearing a 2022 all-time high last week.

Hyatt Hotels

Hyatt earnings leapt 72% to 82 cents per share adjusted while revenue jumped 15% to $17.05 billion. Sales growth slowed the last five quarters.

Wall Street guided an 85% increase in Hyatt earnings to 85 cents per share on 13.6% revenue growth to $1.68 billion.

Comparable system-wide RevPAR increased 10.3% for the quarter compared to last year. Hyatt's net room growth rose 6.9% for the period and its pipeline expanded to 119,000 rooms, representing 40% of the company's existing portfolio.

For the year, Hyatt forecasts a 52.7% drop in net income to $215 million, well below FactSet estimates of $295 million. Hyatt sees system-wide RevPAR increasing 14% to 16%. Free cash flow is expected to fall 19.8% to $550 million. Analysts forecast free cash flow of $605 million for the year.

Hyatt reported positive earnings since Q2 2022 with accelerating earnings growth the past two quarters. The Chicago-based hotel chain averaged 71% revenue growth the past four quarters.

Hyatt stock fell from a buy zone this week after surpassing the 122 buy point for a cup-with-handle base on July 11.

H stock ticked up Friday after falling 8.5% to 111.99 Thursday following results, triggering the 7% to 8% sell rule. Shares rallied about 24% so far this year.

Online Travel

Booking agencies are slated to report results on Thursday, with Expedia reporting before the open while Airbnb and Booking Holdings are due after the close. All are expected to report double-digit earnings gains. Shares for the companies are trading above buy points following mid-July breakouts.

Expedia earnings leapt 48% to $2.89 per share early Thursday while revenue rose 6% to a Q2 record of $3.36 billion. Analysts expected earnings of $2.35 per share on $3.37 billion in revenue. EXPE shares dived 16.4% Thursday, dropping out of buy zone for a cup-with-handle base. EXPE stock rebounded 4.6% Friday. Shares climbed past the 114.37 buy point on July 10 but struggled to extend their gains after peaking at 122.13 on July 18.

Booking Holdings jumped 7.9% to a record high of 3,063.16 Friday. Shares rallied 11.5% premarket. The company beat estimates Thursday and forecasts a record summer travel season in Q3. Adjusted earnings nearly doubled to $37.62 per share while revenue leapt 27% to $5.5 billion. Wall Street predicted 56% earnings growth to $28.94 per share on 20.4% revenue growth to $5.17 billion.  BKNG stock vaulted 52% this year and is trading near all-time highs. Booking stock is trading above a buy zone for a flat base following a July 14 breakout.

Airbnb earnings soared 75% to 98 cents per share while revenue jumped 18% to $2.48 billion. Analysts guided a 42% increase in earnings to 80 cents per share on 11.7% revenue growth to $2.42 billion. Gross bookings rose 12% to $19.1 billion, surpassing estimates of $18.97 billion. Shares dipped Friday, adding to its 2.6% decline during market hours Thursday. ABNB stock is hovering below a buy zone for a cup base after surpassing the 144.63 buy point on July 17. Shares are greatly extended from the 50-day line. Airbnb stock decisively cleared an early entry around 129 on July 11.

Travel Industry Growth

The IBD Leisure-Lodging industry group spiked 24.8% so far this year while the booking industry leapt nearly 45% in 2023.

In the first quarter of 2023, U.S. hotels exceeded pre-pandemic (Q1 2019) revenue-per-available-room levels by 13%, PricewaterhouseCoopers reported in May.

Leisure travel remains strong but growth levels will likely slow in late 2023 and 2024 due to economic headwinds and inflation biting into consumer wallets. But PwC expects reemerging business travel to offset softening vacation trips.

You can follow Harrison Miller for more stock news and updates on Twitter @IBD_Harrison

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