Hopes of a 10-year EV transition are ‘irrational’ pipe dreams because we don’t have enough battery materials—opening up a single copper mine takes 23 years

A copper mine. (Credit: Oliver Bunic—Bloomberg/Getty Images)

As electric vehicles have become cheaper and more reliable, governments have set ambitious timelines to phase out gas-powered cars and electrify their fleets. California has committed to only selling new zero-emissions vehicles by 2035, and an executive order from President Biden sets a goal of having half of all new cars sold be electric just six years from now (the figure is currently hovering at a little over 7%.) But natural resource experts insist policymakers’ goals simply aren’t possible for one key reason: There’s not enough copper.

“It's almost irrational, the expectation that we can electrify everything and have all the materials that we actually need for batteries and electric vehicles…by 2030, or 2035,” M. Stephen Enders, a professor at the Colorado School of Mines and a 48-year veteran of the mining industry, told Fortune. “We can't supply the metals fast enough.”