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AAP
AAP
Business
Poppy Johnston

Home price downturn now more subdued

Property prices are tracking down as interest rate rises continue to eat into the sum buyers can borrow.

But home value trackers are showing a slowdown in the pace of decline, with CoreLogic's home value index reporting the smallest monthly decline since June.

The one per cent drop for the month represented a more moderate decline from earlier in the year, with Sydney and Melbourne prices braking more dramatically than in smaller markets.

In August, home values in Sydney fell 2.3 per cent, whereas in November, they fell by just 1.3 per cent.

A second home price gauge released by PropTrack, which employs a different methodology to track home price movements, showed home prices down 0.16 per cent for the month.

While the November score represented an acceleration on October's pace of decline, recent falls across this index are also smaller in size than drops seen earlier in the year.

The accumulative falls have done little to unwind the massive pandemic upswing, with national prices still 30 per cent above pre-pandemic levels as per PropTrack estimates.

According to this index, home prices have fallen 3.81 per cent from their peak, with Sydney and Melbourne falling faster than other markets.

But with the pace of decline slowing, CoreLogic's research director Tim Lawless said there was a chance buyers had become accustomed to the new market conditions.

"Potentially we are seeing the initial uncertainty around buying in a higher interest rate environment wearing off, while persistently low advertised stock levels have likely contributed to this trend towards smaller value falls," he said.

But with the typically busy spring selling season drawing to a close, the fastest interest rate tightening cycle since the 1990s is likely to keep forcing prices down across most of the country.

PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said another 25 basis point rate rise was "all but certain", taking the cash rate to 3.1 per cent.

She said this would continue to drive up borrowing costs and shrink the maximum amount buyers can borrow, pushing prices down further.

Numbers crunched by AMP Capital economist Shane Oliver show the average full-time earner's home buying power has shrunk by 25 per cent, falling from around $600,000 to $450,000 (provided they had a 20 per cent deposit).

"This demand side impact has been the key driver of home price falls so far, but suggests there is much more to go," he said.

Despite the apparent slowdown in price falls, Dr Oliver was not convinced the downturn was almost finished.

"Past periods of property price falls experienced a few gyrations in the pace of price declines before prices ultimately bottomed."

He pointed to the weakening economy as well as the upcoming fixed mortgage cliff as signs of more trouble to come, with the bulk of fixed-rate home loans due to expire by the end of 2023.

Under these conditions, Dr Oliver and his team are sticking with their forecast of a 15 to 20 per cent drop from top to bottom by the September quarter next year.

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