The UK government's latest visa restrictions could deliver a blow to the economy of between £2.2 billion ($2.9 billion) and £10.8 billion ($14.4 billion) over five years, according to a Home Office impact assessment published this week. The central estimate stands at £5.4 billion in net fiscal costs, stemming from reduced migration inflows, lost visa fees, and lower tax revenues.
These reforms, part of efforts to curb net migration, target skilled workers and end overseas recruitment for care roles. As of 11 December 2025, the changes have already led to sharp drops in visa issuances, with health and care grants down 89 per cent from their peak.
