The Home Office needs to process an asylum claim every four minutes between now and the end of the year if the prime minister’s pledge to clear the backlog is to be honoured, according to new data.
Earlier this month the prime minister reiterated that the government would meet this target, although critics are sceptical this target will be achieved.
Rishi Sunak said ministers were “on track” to clear the current asylum backlog, which stood at 74,410 cases on 28 May according to government data, “entirely by the end of the year”.
A new briefing paper from the Refugee Council published on Wednesday has calculated that 10,630 backlog cases need to be resolved every month between now and December if Sunak is to meet his target. That equates to 354 cases a day or one case every four minutes.
While the Home Office has recruited more caseworkers to deal with the backlog and has promised to continue to recruit, staffing levels have recently dropped. According to the National Audit Office there were 1,333 decision makers in post on 1 January. By 1 May the figure was 1,280. Of the current number only half are currently making decisions and only 140 have been fully trained and able to work independently.
The rate of cases concluded is much lower than three years ago, when there were about half the number of decision makers but almost the same number of decisions being made every month.
The new report urges ministers to process decisions quicker for the five countries where most refugees are coming from: Afghanistan; Eritrea; Iran; Sudan; and Syria. The Refugee Council said this could reduce Home Office hotel use by 89% and save more than £5m a day.
Just over 42,000 people from the five high-grant-rate countries were being accommodated by the Home Office at the end of March 2023, including 23,108 in hotels – 49% of the total number of people in hotels.
The report also raises concerns that more than half of asylum “decisions” are actually withdrawals rather than grants or refusals. Of the 10,458 decisions made in the first three months of 2023, 55% were withdrawals. In April, that number was 72%. The reason for such a high rate of withdrawals is not known.
Enver Solomon, the chief executive of the Refugee Council, said: “The asylum backlog has a devastating impact on those we work with, who are stuck in limbo for months and years on end, unable to work or put down roots as they wait to hear whether they will be allowed to stay in the country. Taking action on the backlog makes sense both financially and morally.
“The government must go further and faster by taking the simple step of setting a target to complete all applications from high grant rate countries by the end of September, and ensure its streamlined process is accessible and transparent. This would result in reducing nearly all hotel use, saving millions of pounds a day.”
A Home Office spokesperson said: “We do not recognise the analysis of these figures. We are on track to clear the ‘legacy’ asylum backlog which has already been reduced by 17,000 cases.
“The number of decisions being made overall is up by 35% and we are also doubling the number of caseworkers to further speed up the system. We are committed to ensuring all asylum claims are considered without unnecessary delay to reduce the cost to the taxpayer of expensive hotels.
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