Is it over before it begins? The question of whether Donald Trump has already secured the 2024 GOP nomination or if it is still up for grabs has been a topic of much speculation. While opinions may differ, analyzing the data tells a compelling story.
According to a recent Wall Street Journal article by Peggy Noonan, she refuses to believe that the story is already over and emphasizes that the voting process has just commenced. Nate Cohn from The New York Times adds that even though Chris Christie dropped out of the race, there is room for other candidates to gain momentum, citing historical precedents of surging candidates making significant gains in the final days. Additionally, the upcoming New Hampshire primary holds the potential to be a game-changer as independents can vote in the GOP primary, and recent Gallup data shows that 43% of Americans consider themselves independent, making them the largest political bloc in the country.
However, Times columnist Bret Stephens provides a more definitive perspective, asserting that unless there is an extraordinary turn of events or unforeseen circumstances, it is highly likely that Donald Trump will once again be the Republican Party's nominee for president in 2024.
External factors also come into play, such as the impact of unpredictable Iowa weather on caucus turnout. With temperatures predicted to plummet to record lows, this could have potential ramifications, particularly in rural areas where even a few voters can make a considerable difference.
Examining historical data, an analysis conducted by G. Elliot Morris, head of data analytics at ABC News, provides insight into the prospects of Trump's nomination. Morris compared the aggregate national poll numbers of non-incumbent candidates in mid-December before election years since 1980. The analysis reveals that every non-incumbent with at least 40% support at this stage went on to win their party's nomination. Trump's current polling stands at a significant 61%, the highest among all non-incumbent candidates in recent history.
Comparatively, those in the running against Trump, such as DeSantis and Haley, have polling numbers below 15% in December. While there have been instances, like with Michael Dukakis, John McCain, and Bill Clinton, where candidates with low polling numbers went on to secure their party's nomination, those races had more open fields with no candidate polling above 25%. In contrast, Trump's support is more than double that, leaving fewer undecided voters to sway and diminishing the potential for a challenger to gain substantial traction even with a strong showing in Iowa.
In summary, although the outcome of the 2024 GOP nomination is not fully determined, the data indicates that Trump has a significant advantage. Historical analysis suggests that candidates performing strongly at this stage have a high probability of securing their party's nomination. While surprises can happen, the path to rival Trump's support appears challenging for his competitors. As the primaries unfold, only time will reveal whether any unforeseen twists alter the predicted trajectory of the race.
