The most efficient rushing offense in the NFL lost its leading rusher in the offseason.
After a career year with the Eagles, Miles Sanders signed a lucrative contract to join the Panthers. But Philadelphia isn’t sweating the loss of Sanders and his team-high 1,269 rushing yards the way another team in its position might. This roster is uniquely configured to shrug off the departure and keep on churning out production on the ground.
The Eagles have the best offensive line in the league, highlighted by a pair of All-Pros: Center Jason Kelce and tackle Lane Johnson. They also employ one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in Jalen Hurts and general manager Howie Roseman acquired two talented backs — D’Andre Swift via trade and Rashaad Penny in free agency — for a fraction of the cost of Sanders’ new deal.
Sanders accounts for the entirety of Philadelphia’s 259 vacated running back carries, which is the fifth-most in the league according to 4for4. That available volume equates to 70.4% of their total carries at the position, the fourth-most in the NFL. New offensive coordinator Brian Johnson will have to distribute those available rushes to Swift and Penny, neither of whom have ever played a full season, as well as to Hurts and returning running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott.
Only the Bears, Falcons and Ravens ran the ball at a higher clip last season than the Eagles, who did so on 49.74% of their plays. With a win total set at 10.5 and the ability to impose their will in the trenches yet again, it’s safe to project them to be one of the league’s top rushing teams with 500 or more carries.
Here’s how Philadelphia’s pecking order may play out.
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D’Andre Swift
Swift is coming off his most efficient season as a rusher although it coincided with a dip in volume. He brought his average up to 5.5 yards per carry but did so on just 99 rushes, the fewest of his career. Swift was never a high-volume rusher at Georgia or in Detroit and he has never recorded more than 200 carries in a season — 163 was his high with the Bulldogs, 151 was his most for the Lions.
That can at least partially be attributed to durability issues as Swift has missed at least three games each year in the NFL since he was drafted in 2020. He did surpass 200 touches in 2021 between his 151 carries and career-high 62 receptions, though. Swift’s career average of 9.1 rushes per game would put him just above 150 rushes over a 17-game season, which is about what fantasy managers can expect if he stays healthy in addition to his production as a pass-catcher. (It should be noted the Eagles targeted running backs on an NFL-low 12.1% of their pass attempts in 2022.)
Swift already enjoyed the benefit of running behind a solid offensive line in Detroit, so while the Eagles’ unit is an upgrade it might not make for a big difference in Swift’s production. Though he’s listed as the starter on the depth chart, both Penny and Hurts could realistically out-carry Swift over the course of the year.
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Rashaad Penny
Penny saw another season cut short by injury in 2022. Playing on a one-year deal with the Seahawks, where he began his career as a first-round pick in 2018, Penny broke his fibula in Week 5 and missed the remainder of the season. He flashed in Week 4 when he gained 151 yards and ripped off two scores in a shootout against the Lions, a performance reminiscent of the end-of-season stretch in 2021 that earned him a shot to return to Seattle. But injury struck once again and now Penny has a change of scenery.
For his career, Penny averages 5.7 yards per carry. For context, Nick Chubb is good for 5.2 YPC, which was among the best in the league the last two seasons. Penny appeared in 28 total games the last four years and the most he's played in a single season is 14, his first year in the league. The heaviest workload he ever handled was 119 carries across 10 games in 2021. For his career, Penny averages just over eight carries per game, but as long as he’s active, Johnson will likely call his number more often than that.
Penny is one of the most difficult players to project this season. His range of outcomes is about as wide as any player’s — he could make it three games or he could romp for 1,000 yards. Only time will tell.
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Jalen Hurts
Hurts’ 165 carries led all quarterbacks in 2022 even though he only played 15 games. Though he ran more often than the previous season he finished with fewer yards as his efficiency took a hit. Hurts averaged 5.6 yards per carry as a rookie and a sophomore but in his third campaign that fell to 4.6 on higher volume.
The Eagles often pushed the pile for a yard or two in short-yardage situations, a near-unstoppable play known as the “tush push.” As a result, Hurts finished third in the NFL in first downs gained as a rusher (67) only behind Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry, the league’s top two rushers. He was also used more often in the red zone and to great success. Hurts scored on 11 of his 26 carries inside the 10-yard line and on nine of the 20 touches he fielded inside the five. His 13 touches were tied for the second-most in the NFL and one shy of the record for a quarterback.
In two years as a starter Hurts averaged 152 carries for 772 yards, though he missed two games in each season. It’s unlikely he sees much more volume as a rusher this coming year. But where he could do a lot of damage once again is in the red zone. Of Sanders’ 259 available carries, 45 came in the red zone, the fourth-most in the league. Perhaps Hurts can absorb a few of those and break Cam Newton’s record of 14 rushing touchdowns.
Eagles Rushing Opportunity Summary
Swift and Penny both have the potential to post career years in Philadelphia. The rushing workload is likely to favor Penny but Swift will still get his, even if he’s not as involved as a receiver as he was in Detroit. Both are going at pretty steep discounts in drafts relative to where they could finish: Swift is coming off the board at RB23 in the seventh round and Penny is the RB38 outside the top 100. The risk of injury to both players also makes Gainwell (RB55) intriguing as a depth piece, especially after his production in the playoffs. Scott (RB92) is buried on the depth chart and he likely won’t see any appreciable work without a few injuries. At QB2, Hurts’ rushing upside is baked into his price but he’s shown the ability to be a league-winner and even more rushing touchdown production could be in his future.
Editor’s Note: Welcome to the second annual installment of “The Replacements,” an SI fantasy football series focused on vacated volume and projecting how teams will replace production year-to-year. This offseason, we’re looking at the six teams with the highest percentage of available targets and the six teams with the highest percentage of available carries heading into 2023.
