A ‘realistic’ review of the risks that could affect the success of the Ayrshire Growth Deal have been highlighted in a new report.
Previously, only issues relating to the impact of the pandemic and Brexit had been considered sufficiently worrying to be given an ‘red rag’ risk assessment.
But a ‘wholesale review’ of the AGD risk register has seen concerns ramped up over the nuts and bolts of the programme – which promised to invest £250m over ten years, bringing with it £300m in private investment and creating 7,000 jobs when it was signed by the three Ayrshire Authorities and the UK and Scottish Governments in 2020.
Projects include the development of Aerospace and Space industries around Prestwick Airport, the creation of a manufacturing and engineering park in Kilmarnock and the Great Harbour Development in Irvine.
There are also a number of pan-Ayrshire projects around community wealth building and the environment.
A report to the Ayrshire Economic Partnership Board revealed that review had been carried out “in the context of significant external environmental challenges such as the legacy of the Covid and Brexit, and the ongoing Ukraine war, which combined have contributed to increased cost pressures that have impacted upon the development and delivery of projects and the programme as a whole.”
It adds that the individual project risks had also been taken into account.
The report states there is an increased likelihood of failure to achieve the programme objectives within budget, failure to provide accurate budget projections, inability to draw down all of the potential funding available, insufficient resources and delays to project development.
These issues had all been identified as intermediate ‘amber’ level risks in previous reports. The review also brings together the previous threats around Brexit and the pandemic and adds them into a broader impact of international events on the AGD.
The only risk removed from the previous assessment is around agreement with the UK Government on the AGD’s economic appraisal methodology, which is no longer considered a risk factor.
The report states: “The revised Risk Register now provides a more realistic reflection of the state of the challenges the programme is currently facing.
“It should be noted that project leads across all three Ayrshire councils are actively reviewing projects where cost pressures have had an impact upon development and delivery.”
The report also suggests actions to mitigate the risks, including more robust and regular monitoring of projects.
The report will be considered the Ayrshire Economic Partnership board this week.
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