At Tamsyn Murray’s new chicken sheds, built to house her rapidly expanding flock, 5,000 hens have found a home.
Her business thrived during the pandemic, and while the going was good she decided to double the size of her operation in just 18 months.
But she didn't foresee what would play out overseas.
"We did a massive expansion right after the war started in Ukraine," Dr Murray said.
"Post-COVID, nothing was normal. There were no pallets, things didn’t arrive when they were meant to, the supply chain was broken, and then there were no workers.
"When you run a business where everyone has a valuable role, and you’re short … it really affects your ability to help your team manage without burning out."
And it's affecting her margins.
"We haven’t made any cost price increase because we’ve grown, and so we’ve added volume and tried to become more efficient – but we’re struggling," she said.
National egg shortage
These issues have been felt throughout the industry.
A number of the country’s egg farms have closed down over recent years as the industry deals with a national egg shortage.
Caged egg farmer Brian Ahmed said while many smaller producers may be doing well during the shortage, larger producers who supply supermarkets have been struggling with a number of increased costs.
He also thinks the demand for free-range eggs is affecting supply.
"Efficiencies aren't as good as a caged system, and it is dependent on weather and temperatures, and there are a lot more disease outbreaks in those types of systems," Mr Ahmed said.
"We’ve probably got the same number of birds. We’re not getting the same level of product."
While the changes and cost pressures in the industry have not led to empty supermarket shelves, there have been fluctuations in supply to retailers at times.
Chief executive of Ritchies IGA Fred Harrison said the shortage began during the COVID lockdowns, but the market was now tightening.
"It seems to be getting worse, not better," he said.
"A lot [of the supermarkets] are lacking difference varieties. If we can get 50 per cent of what we're ordering, we're pleased."
In a statement, a spokesman for Woolworths said the supermarket's egg supply was stable and increasing every month.
"We're maintaining regular deliveries to stores, but at the same time we are seeing an increase in demand for eggs right across the country," the spokesman said.
"We're working hard to keep regular amounts of eggs on our shelves and we thank customers for their patience and understanding."
A spokeswoman for Coles said the supermarket was not experiencing a shortage of eggs.
Supermarkets move to cage free
Woolworths and Coles have said their egg ranges will be cage free by 2025, in a plan to end the practice of keeping poultry in battery cages.
Conventional battery cages are generally about 50 centimetres square in size and will be phased out in Australia by 2036.
From this year, all new chicken cages must be installed with nest areas, and layer hens must also have access to perches or platforms and a scratch area to allow them areas to display natural behaviours.
Mr Harrison said that has resulted in suppliers leaving the egg business.
"They don't want to convert to cage free and instead are just selling up and getting out," he said.
"To have cage-free eggs requires more space, more cost, and there's not a lot of suppliers wanting to go down that path."
"And now the suppliers who have the cage-free eggs are now running short on supply."
Mr Harrison said there was not enough time to plan the phase-out adequately.
"There hasn't been enough forward planning for alternative farmers to come into the industry, is partly what's causing the squeeze now."
"I anticipate the egg shortage remaining for some time still."
Victorian Farmers Federation Egg Group president Meg Parkinson says this move is already affecting the farmers' hip pockets.
"All that means really is that the price that they give farmers for caged eggs is what they'll give for barn-laid eggs, and the current price for barn-laid eggs is what they'll give for free-range eggs," Ms Parkinson said.
Avian influenza
Avian influenza — or bird flu — has killed half a billion poultry birds across the globe, and China recently recorded its first human death from the virus.
"You only have to look at what’s happening around the world. In the UK they’ve got no free-range eggs at the moment because they’ve locked up all their birds because they haven’t been able to control the disease," Mr Ahmed said.
"The virus is spreading through Europe and even through the US and Asia.
"Unfortunately, no fault to the farmers, when you let the birds out into the open, they tend to mix with wild birds, and it is very clear that the wild birds carry that disease and spread it when we migrate around the world."
Worst outbreak the state has ever seen
In 2020, Victorian poultry farmers dealt with the worst outbreak of avian influenza the state had ever seen.
"We lost almost a million birds here in western Victoria. The threats are real," he said.
Banks are showing more caution, too.
Dr Murray said the virus was raised by her lender when discussing a loan.
"We have massively expanded, and that capital has come from borrowings from the bank," she said.
"They did raise in the past six months the risks of bird flu and that it affected their level of comfort in terms of that level of debt.
"I’ve never heard them mention that before. It was a bit of a surprise."
