A strange economic phenomenon is happening. By most objective measures, U.S. economic performance under the Biden-Harris administration has been superior to that under the Trump administration, and a vast majority of Americans report satisfaction with their economic situation. And yet, most Americans believe the economy is faring poorly, resulting in a large gap between their lived economic experience and perception of the state of the national economy. A review of the economic facts and an explanation of the perception gap are sorely needed.
Under Trump, from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2020, the U.S. economy grew 7.4% adjusted for inflation. Under Biden-Harris, through the second quarter of 2024, the economy grew 10.6%, reaching an all-time, inflation-adjusted, high of $22.9 trillion and besting the $20.7 trillion at the end of the Trump administration. Even comparing the size of the economy at its peak of nearly $21 trillion at the end of 2019 under Trump, thereby excluding the effect of COVID-19 on his economic record, the economy is still $1.9 trillion larger under Biden-Harris. And taking into account population growth as well as inflation, gross domestic product per capita reached a record high of $68,088 per person in the second quarter of 2024 under Biden-Harris, far exceeding its peak of $63,257 under Trump in the last quarter of 2019.
