WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow's announcement Thursday that she won't run for re-election shocked Michigan's political class and sparked buzz across the halls of Capitol Hill and Lansing about who would throw in for the battleground race in 2024.
Political insiders floated a stream of names expected to possibly run, including Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Lansing, a centrist who has widely been mentioned as a potential statewide candidate; Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson of Detroit, who has run statewide three times; and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg ― the former Democratic presidential candidate who recently moved to Traverse City.
On the Republican side, the names mentioned include Rep.-elect John James of Farmington Hills; former Republican U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer of Grand Rapids Township; former U.S. Rep. Candice Miller of Harrison Township, now Macomb County public works commissioner; and businessman and former gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke, who is reportedly considering a bid.
Miller, the former secretary of state from Macomb County who has twice been elected statewide, is "seriously" considering a bid and "if she did she would be formidable, in my opinion," said GOP strategist Jamie Roe, her former chief of staff.
"Whether any of these other candidates have the ability to put together the resources and organization to succeed will be another issue," Roe said. "This will be very competitive."
Meijer declined to comment Thursday. A source close to Slotkin's team said she is "seriously" considering a run for the seat, while Buttigieg suggested he's not looking for other work, calling Stabenow "a force in the Senate and fights every day to make life better for Michiganders and all Americans."
“I am fully focused on serving the President in my role as Secretary of Transportation, and not seeking any other job," Buttigieg said in a statement. "We are hard at work to rebuild the nation’s infrastructure, grow the economy, and create good-paying jobs.”
Other top Democratic names mentioned as potential contenders include U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Ann Arbor; former U.S. Rep. Andy Levin of Bloomfield Township; state Sen. Mallory McMorrow; and Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist. If Benson or Gilchrist were to become senator, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer would appoint Benson's successor.
Some observers also named Whitmer among the possible contenders. She is term limited after just winning re-election, but she swiftly bowed out of contention Thursday: "As governor of this great state for the next four years, I look forward to working with her through the end of her term and beyond in however she serves our state next,” Whitmer said of Stabenow.
Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan also said Thursday, "there is no circumstances under which I'll be running" for Senate, noting said he made an "iron-clad" promise when campaigning for re-election in 2021 that he'd serve a full four-year term.
Duggan added that he’d already received three calls as of Thursday morning to support others' campaigns.
“People are not waiting long. You’re going to see prominent names jump in pretty quickly,” he said, not naming who he’d like to see fill the seat. “I’m sure I will end up supporting somebody. Right now, I’m going to let Senator Stabenow accept the congratulations.”
Dingell, who holds one of the best-known names in Michigan politics, declined to say whether she would seriously examine a run for Senate. She had expected Stabenow to run again after hearing that from the senator herself, she said.
"I'm stunned. I can't imagine Michigan's congressional delegation without her," Dingell said Thursday in response to the Stabenow news. "Today is a day to celebrate her and what she's done for the state."
Also within the Democratic delegation, a source close to U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Birmingham, also said she's eyeing a potential run.
On the GOP side, insiders often brought up James, a businessman and Iraq veteran who ran for Senate in 2020 and 2018, when he lost to Stabenow by 6.5 percentage points. James didn't rule out the idea Thursday in a statement.
"Look, I haven't even been sworn into Congress yet!" James said. "So here's my plan: Get sworn in and get to work serving the people of Michigan's 10th District."
James' statement referenced the ongoing stalemate in the House this week over California Rep. Kevin McCarthy's flailing bid to be speaker.
Other high-profile GOP possibilities include Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt of Lawton; newly retired U.S. Rep. Fred Upton of St. Joseph; self-funding businessman Perry Johnson; U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga, R-Holland; and former Attorney General Mike Cox. Other recent statewide candidates like gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon could give it a go.
Also, U.S. Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Bruce Township, has proven ambitious, recently winning a seat in the House GOP leadership, and could at least partially self-fund a campaign, noted John Sellek, Republican consultant and founder of Harbor Strategic Public Affairs.
Sellek suggested the open seat could create a "monster" primary on the GOP side, maybe attracting some of the failed pro-Trump candidates from the recent gubernatorial race, especially with the disarray in the state party organization.
"We have the potential for a really big Republican primary and perhaps a narrower or even uncompetitive Democratic primary, should the Democrats get their ducks in a row to try to talk any of the major players out of a full-scale primary fight," he said. "And a lot of people will see a candidacy for the Senate as the potential to be a leader of the GOP in Michigan going forward."
He suggested that Meijer, an Iraq veteran, getting into the race as a pro-Trump impeachment Republican would attract regular, national news coverage of the race as the latest proxy on what happens to the GOP post-Trump. And Slotkin would be almost "tailor-made" for the Democrats with her three swing-district wins and focus on kitchen-table and middle class issues that Whitmer has also had success with, Sellek said.
Democratic consultant Adrian Hemond of the Lansing-based Grassroots Midwest firm agreed that Slotkin would be the favorite to get the Democratic nomination, given her fundraising prowess and track record of winning tough elections. Hemond also allowed that James could throw in, though he wouldn't counsel that after James finally got elected to Congress, he said.
Former Attorney General Bill Schuette, who lost a 1990 U.S. Senate campaign against longtime Sen. Carl Levin, also be a Republican contender, Hemond said.
"You could see Bill Schuette do this and, obviously, Schutte would be fairly formidable, especially depending on the year and how things turns out for Republicans with the presidential race," Hemond said.
"I wouldn't at all be surprised to see an outsider candidate or two, as well — somebody who's not currently elected official on the Republican side. That definitely seems to be desirable in a Republican primary these days."
Pollster Richard Czuba of the Glengariff Group suggested either Meijer or Upton — both well-funded candidates — could win a GOP primary if there were multiple pro-Trump candidates in the mix.
Republicans haven't won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since 1994 when Spence Abraham won -- a seat he held for just one term before getting ousted by Stabenow in 2000. But the party made clear Thursday it would make Michigan a priority in 2024.
“Senate Democrats don’t even have a campaign chair yet and they are already dealing with a major retirement," said Mike Berg, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "We are going to aggressively target this seat in 2024. This could be the first of many Senate Democrats who decide to retire rather than lose.”
Michigan is among five seats that Republicans are targeting in 2024 that Biden lost by less than 3 percentage points.
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