A record-long government shutdown, recession jitters and rising inflation have millions of Americans anxious about what 2026 will hold for their finances — and their incomes, in particular.
President Donald Trump’s second-term inauguration on Jan. 20 was in the first fiscal quarter of the year — but what will the average American earn after year one of the second Trump presidency comes to a close?
This article reveals the probable answer to that question and outlines the logic behind the dollar amount.
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No One Can Predict the Future, but Historical Data Offers a Probable Projection
Changes in economic, business, market and political conditions can impact wages in any given year or quarter. Therefore, the best way to predict typical pay in the near future is to examine a historical data set large enough to smooth out short-term wage volatility.
However, the average can be a misleading dollar amount because a handful of ultra-high earners can artificially inflate the average for the entire population. Therefore, the median — the middle number where half are higher and half are lower — offers a more accurate representation.
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Wages Have Risen Slowly but Steadily for 10 Years
The following data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows the median weekly wage in the first quarter of each year over the last decade.
Note that the data includes only full-time wage and salary workers, not the self-employed or part-time employees. Additionally, the numbers are not adjusted for inflation and therefore do not represent changes in real purchasing power.
- 2016: $830
- 2017: $858
- 2018: $875
- 2019: $899
- 2020: $951
- 2021: $984
- 2022: $1,033
- 2023: $1,097
- 2024: $1,135
- 2025: $1,192
A Decade of Salary Data Reveals a Pattern — and a Probability
The BLS data shows an average annual growth rate of approximately 4% over the last decade. With that as the baseline, historical averages indicate that the median salary in the first quarter of 2026, when the first year of President Trump’s current term ends and the second begins, will be $1,239.68 per week, or $64,463.36 annually.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Here’s What Salary the Average American Could Be Earning After Year 1 of the Trump Presidency
