It’s always trade season in the NBA.
The latest star to hit the transfer portal is Bulls guard Zach Lavine, who is reported to be open to a trade away from Chicago, and the team is apparently open to offers after its underwhelming 4–7 start.
LaVine, who turns 29 in March, is averaging 21.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.0 assists so far this season. He is an accomplished scorer, though his efficiency has slipped a bit. He also has three years left on his contract at over $40 million a year.
Thinking through the list of teams for LaVine, I’m not sure his market is as robust as it would have been even two weeks ago. Let’s run through some options.
The 76ers? Philly should not be rushing into breaking up what’s arguably been the most impressive team in the league. Tyrese Maxey is thriving without another backcourt partner to soak up possessions. Joel Embiid seems like he’s the happiest he’s been in years. And the veterans acquired in the James Harden trade are filling in nicely in their supporting roles. Adding LaVine would be a risk, and would his scoring punch be needed on what’s been the fourth-best offense in the NBA? On top of that, LaVine’s contract would eat into Philly’s precious cap space next summer, when someone like O.G. Anunoby could be available, or maybe even one of the Clippers’ stars (non-Harden division).
How about the Warriors? Golden State has struggled of late. No one besides Stephen Curry can score. LaVine would maybe make sense here, but who would the Dubs give up? Chris Paul has been effective as a backup, helping prop up bench groups that have long been an issue. And his contract alone wouldn’t be enough for LaVine. Would Golden State really give up on Andrew Wiggins, even amid his current struggles? Moving him would take away the team’s best defensive option on the perimeter. A Klay Thompson swap would work, but I just don’t see the Dubs breaking up Curry and Thompson midseason, no matter how rough it gets.
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The Heat? Miami desperately needs a boost in its halfcourt offense. But they have Tyler Herro giving similar if not better production than LaVine (before his ankle injury), and at a much cheaper cost. Duncan Robinson is currently playing the best basketball of his career, and Kyle Lowry has had a solid start as well. Then there’s the second apron of it all. The Heat seem keen on avoiding entering that zone. If Miami was able to get Alex Caruso back in the deal, then maybe it makes more sense, but this would be a major shakeup for a team that has won six in a row, prioritizes defense and has a tricky cap situation.
This brings me to the Lakers. Los Angeles currently has an offense in the bottom half of the league, and is getting run off the floor whenever LeBron James sits. LaVine would be a fit here, and playing in front of James and Anthony Davis should help mitigate his defensive struggles. The thing is, if the Bulls are going to blow it up, shouldn’t the Lakers try to hold out for DeMar DeRozan? In fact, the Lakers could try to trade for both DeRozan and Caruso—who combined make less money than LaVine.
Los Angeles has the salaries to match. But does it have the draft capital? Caruso may command two first-round picks on his own because of how affordable his contract is through next year. That’s where this plan gets tricky. But even if the Lakers can only afford to trade for DeRozan, his veteran sensibility is probably a better fit on the roster than LaVine, and both sides could decide in the summer if they wanted the partnership to continue.
The bottom line is this: If Chicago is going to become a seller—and if LaVine is gone, it would make sense for at least DeRozan to follow—then the Lakers probably make more sense as a DeMar destination than a LaVine one. Meanwhile, I’m not sure how robust the LaVine market will be in the immediate future, because a lot of obvious landing spots are more complicated beneath the surface.
