Here’s the thing about possessing a playoff spot rather than chasing one: It’s unnecessary to always keep one eye on the out-of-town scores.
But old habits die hard, apparently. So, the best thing that happened to the Phillies on Tuesday night came roughly 20 minutes before the merciful final out of their fifth consecutive loss when a square on the electronic scoreboard in right field at Citizens Bank Park flickered.
NYM 7
MIL 4
All together now: “Whew.”
“We still are in the driver’s seat,” starter Kyle Gibson said after the Milwaukee Brewers blew a late lead at home against the New York Mets to blunt the impact of his allowing seven runs on 12 hits in five innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. “It depends on how we do. It doesn’t depend on how anybody else does.”
It’s true. Not that you’d know it from the way the Phillies are playing. They were 18-19 in the last 37 games entering Wednesday night, so they owed much of their two-game lead (three including the tiebreaker) for the final National League wild card to the Brewers’ 19-20 record over the same stretch.
That sound you hear is the beep-beep-beep of the Phillies backing into the playoffs. But the math doesn’t lie, and believe it or not, the magic number to clinch their first playoff spot since 2011 was down to 12 entering Wednesday night. In that spirit, 12 thoughts on the flagging Phillies:
1. Interim manager Rob Thomson pushes back on the Phillies-can’t-beat-good-teams narrative, citing their victorious season series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals. The facts remain: Against winning teams, they were 5-11 since the All-Star break, 16-17 under Thomson, and 29-34 overall, with eight of the last 15 games coming against playoff-bound clubs.
2. Nobody is asking the Phillies to apologize for beating up on the NL’s four weakest teams, but it’s hard to ignore that they are 37-11 against Washington, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati and 43-56 against everyone else.
3. In the past, the Phillies would have to play a 163rd game if they wind up tied for the final playoff spot. Not anymore. MLB did away with the extra game to expedite the postseason. Ties are now broken by a set of conditions, beginning with head-to-head record. The Phillies own the tiebreaker over Milwaukee and the San Diego Padres. “We finished games against them in ... early June,” Brewers manager Craig Counsell told ESPN.com. “We were aware of it at the time, but there’s 110 games left at that point. There’s not much to be done.”
4. Zack Wheeler’s return to the mound Wednesday night after missing a month raised this question: What’s reasonable to expect from him? Wheeler had an 8.53 ERA through his first three starts after not starting in spring training. “I don’t know, but I’m thinking it will be better than that,” Thomson said. “He got off to a little bit of a slow start just because it was a short spring training for him. But he’s had a good amount of workload, and now this is the time of year when your adrenaline really flows.”
5. Looking for a blueprint for what Wheeler is attempting to do? Try this: In 2019, Blake Snell returned on Sept. 17 after missing nearly two months because of arthroscopic elbow surgery. He made three starts down the stretch for Tampa Bay, topping out at 62 pitches, and Game 2 of the division series.
6. In 2019, J.T. Realmuto finished 14th in the NL MVP balloting. He should be in the top 10 this season. After going 5-for-5 with a homer Tuesday night, he was up to .321/.386/.624 since June 25. Factor in his dominance on the bases, on both sides of the ball, and his Fangraphs’ wins above replacement is 6.1, seventh in the NL and the most by a catcher since Buster Posey in 2016 (6.6).
7. One player who won’t weep over the banning of infield shifts: Kyle Schwarber. He has faced the shift in 90.3% of his plate appearances, according to Statcast. Toronto played an extreme shift Tuesday night. In the third inning, Schwarber hit a 308-foot line drive to right field that was caught by second baseman Cavan Biggio.
8. In a related story, Schwarber would be the third player ever to reach 40 home runs while batting .215 or lower, joining Joey Gallo (2018-19) and Adam Dunn (2012).
9. Bryce Harper saw seven consecutive changeups or curveballs before homering on a changeup last Wednesday night in Miami. “I’d probably throw me offspeed also,” he said, “for the fact that I’m so out front of that and I’m behind the heater.” Here’s the weird part: It’s the fastballs that are giving Harper trouble. Since returning from a two-month absence with a broken left thumb, he’s batting .212 and slugging .364 against heaters compared to .304 and .565 against changeups. It was the opposite before the injury. Harper was destroying fastballs (.333/.658) and struggling against changeups (.185/.370).
10. After a solid August in which he batted .300/.333/.500 with five homers in 26 games, Nick Castellanos has had only two at-bats since Aug. 28 because of turf toe and a strained oblique muscle in his right side. The latter caused him to miss his 16th consecutive game Wednesday night. He has been swinging off a tee and running bases, and Thomson said the “best-case scenario” would be a triple-A assignment over the weekend. In that case, Castellanos could possibly return for all or most of the final 10 games.
11. The Phillies’ bullpen has sprung leaks in recent weeks, but hard-throwing prospect Griff McGarry is only an “emergency policy,” according to Thomson. The Phillies moved McGarry to the bullpen a few weeks ago to determine his viability as a reliever in September. In four appearances at triple-A Lehigh Valley, he has allowed four runs on six hits, including two home runs, and five walks in six innings over four appearances.
12. Schwarber, a veteran of six postseasons in seven years, often addresses the team after games. He had a clear message Tuesday night: “Stay in the fight.” Said Gibson: “We have a pretty veteran team in here that has been in these situations. We still have a lot of confidence.”
